Why Latrell Mitchell’s injury has hit the NSW Blues’ State of Origin chances ‘like an earthquake’

If you only listen to the noise coming from Blues coach Brad Fittler and the rest of the NSW staff at camp, Latrell Mitchell’s shock withdrawal from the team through injury is just a gear on the road to victory – but pro punters tell a completely different story.

Fittler praised the Souths fullback for pulling out of the team on Monday with a calf injury, calling his decision ‘selfless’ as it allowed Penrith star Stephen Crichton to take his place.

The Blues boss said his withdrawal was “disappointing” and “unfortunate”, but the top punters in the country are using slightly stronger language.

Betting office BetRight‘s CEO Anthony Waller said the Blues were already unsure of beating the Maroons in game one at Adelaide Oval on Wednesday night, but the Mitchell news turned the betting landscape upside down.

The Blues have a stellar replacement in Stephen Crichton (pictured) – but the smart money says he can’t fill the huge hole left by the Souths superstar

“We viewed NSW as a risk and bet on the best price,” Waller explained.

With Latrell Mitchell excluded, it caused a seismic shift in the markets that was at least equivalent to the magnitude 3.8 earthquake that hit Melbourne.

“With Latrell out, it’s going to be a bit of a coin toss and Queensland is looking stronger.”

A quick look at BetRight’s market on Tuesday afternoon, NSW dropped $1.87 to win, while the Maroons sat at $1.95.

Mitchell’s scratching has also caused Queensland to change their game plan.

Coach Billy Slater has moved the blazingly fast Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to the left side of the field to face Tom Trbojevic at center.

The Manly superstar was under something of an injury cloud in the run-up to Origin as he was clearly suffering from a groin injury and appeared unable to keep up the top pace.

If there is a persistent problem affecting his pace, Tabuai-Fidow is an ideal candidate to exploit it with the extreme pace with which he has scored 10 tries in just 11 appearances for the Dolphins this season.

Queensland has devised a plan to push Tom Trbojevic to the limit in light of Mitchell’s absence – with the Manly flyer looking unable to hit full pace ahead of Origin

“I’ll shorten their thinking time,” Tabuai-Fidow said of his priority in game one defense.

“I have the speed and I feel stronger this year too. With that speed and power I think it will be a good fight in the centres, and I can be a threat too.’

The substitution means Valentine Holmes will mark Crichton at the other end of the field, with Matt Burton replacing the Panthers flyer as 18th man for the Blues.

“When I got the call for the 18th man I knew I had to be prepared for anything,” said Crichton.

“I prepared like I was at the start so if something like this happens I won’t look back and think I should have done this or that.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (pictured with ball in training in Queensland) is one of the NRL’s form players with 10 tries from 11 games for the Dolphins – and his electric pace could be a big test for Trbojevic at Adelaide Oval

“Now that the opportunity is here, I’m excited and ready to go.”

Fittler said he wasn’t worried about throwing Crichton into the mix after playing in all three games of last year’s series.

“He’s played in big games, he’s been in big finals and he’s won big finals and he’s done a good job at the World Cup (with Samoa) and with us,” Fittler said.

“He will not be overwhelmed by the situation. We had a move called ‘Latrell,’ so maybe Stephen should adjust to that.”

Fittler said he wasn’t afraid of halfback Nathan Cleary’s infected tooth.

The No. 7 Penrith won the 2021 premiership as he played the back half of the season with a labral tear in his shoulder.

“He’s had it for months so there’s no problem and he’ll play and there was never a problem that meant he wouldn’t play,” Fittler said.

For all the latest markets for State of Origin, NRL games and much, much more, visit betright.com.au.