Ukraine counteroffensive against Russia under way: think tank

World
By William

Kiev’s counter-offensive against Russian forces has begun, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank that monitors the war in Ukraine has said, though Ukrainian officials continue to deny or refuse confirmation that their long-awaited campaign to retake Russian-held territory is underway .

“The Ukrainian #counteroffensive has begun. Activity in #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counter-offensive operations are underway across the theater,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a series of tweets late Thursday.

Ukrainian officials have confirmed that their forces are on the offensive in the Bakhmut region – where they reportedly gained territory – and the ISW said it had observed “a general increase in military activity across the front line, not everything is part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive effort”.

The ISW said the counter-offensive “is unlikely to unfold as a single major operation”.

“It will probably consist of many projects in different locations of varying size and intensity over many weeks.”

While Ukrainian officials indicate that the start of the counter-offensive will not be officially announced, other experts have also concluded that the campaign has begun amid reports of fighting intensifying in areas along the more than 1,000-kilometer Kherson-on-Black front line. Sea to the border of Ukraine with Russia.

NBC News, citing a senior officer and a soldier near the front lines, also said the offensive had begun, while The Washington Post, citing “four individuals” in the armed forces, reported the same information on Thursday.

Asked about those reports, a spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine told Reuters news agency: “We have no such information.”

In his late-night speech on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised what he described as “results” in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

“I am in constant contact with our military. The commanders of Khortytsia, Tavria, [and] all involved in the hottest areas. Donetsk region – very heavy fighting,” he said.

“But there is a result, and I am grateful to everyone who ensures this result! Bakhmut – well done. Step-by-step. I thank each of our fighters!”

Zelenskyy referred to other battlefield areas, but said now was not the time to discuss them.

“The whole east, the situation in the south, the situation after the Russians blew up the dam of the native Kakhovka – we see every detail. But it’s not time to talk about it today.”

In a podcast on Wednesday, Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses, a US research group, said the fighting had taken a “more qualitative turn” with Ukrainian forces appearing to be conducting offensive operations near the eastern city of Velyka Novosilka and other points in the region. southern part of the Donetsk region, as well as on the border with the Zaporizhia region.

“I don’t believe these attacks [them] to be the main offensive effort, but they mark what I think is the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive,” he said.

Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull, reporting from Kiev, said Ukraine has made it clear that it “will not provide ongoing commentary on what is going on” as it does not appear to want to give up “the element of surprise”.

“What’s going on now or what’s going on, well, military analysts have given their opinion, and their opinion is that Ukraine is engaged in a series of investigative attacks, so-called form operations ahead of the counter-offensive,” Hull said.

“Exploring Russian weaknesses, looking for vulnerabilities while essentially leaving Russia in the dark,” he said.

Russia said its forces engaged in a two-hour battle with Ukrainian troops in the Zaporizhia region in the early hours of Thursday.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the Ukrainian offensive involved 1,500 soldiers and 150 armored vehicles.

“The enemy was stopped and withdrew after heavy casualties,” he said.

Ukraine’s deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said only that Russia was carrying out “defensive actions” near the Zaporizhia region of Orikhiv.

According to the ISW, the first phase of Ukraine’s counter-offensive operations will likely be the most costly and difficult in terms of lives lost and equipment destroyed as troops and armor attempt to push into Russia’s defensive positions.

“Militaries have long regarded the penetration phase of a mechanized offensive as the most dangerous and costly. The success or failure of this phase may not be apparent for some time,” the ISW said.

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