Putin ‘negotiated guarantees for his safety with President Xi in case he loses power’

Vladimir Putin has negotiated with Chinese President Xi Jinping to guarantee his safety if he is removed from power, Ukraine believes.

It is suspected that if he were impeached, the Russian leader would be hiding in China with a non-extradition agreement, meaning China would not send him abroad to face charges of war crimes committed during his invasion.

Xi visited Moscow and met his despotic Russian counterpart last week, with the pair professing friendship and pledging closer ties as Putin’s forces continue to struggle to make a profit in what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Full details of their talks at the summit have not been released, but the meeting is widely seen as China offering its support to Putin as Western countries – such as the US, UK, Germany and other NATO allies – unite behind Ukraine.

Some analysts have also interpreted the meeting as a demonstration that Xi has more power in the relationship, with Beijing helping to save Russia from Western sanctions imposed on Moscow’s economy after the invasion.

Now, according to a ministerial adviser in Ukraine, it is believed that one of the talking points at the summit was that Putin would lose power.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister, tweeted today that this was probably one of the “key negotiating topics” between Putin and Xi during their meetings last week.

If Putin were impeached, Gerashchenko said the deal would see the Russian leader escape to China, with a non-extradition agreement.

The report of the deal comes after Putin was indicted earlier this month by the International Criminal Court for illegally deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.

“It is likely that one of the main topics of negotiation between Putin and Xi Jinping was guarantees of Putin’s personal safety in the event of his loss of power, possible shelter for him in China, and non-extradition to an international tribunal,” Gerashchenko wrote.

Despite public discord being rare in Russia due to draconian anti-freedom of speech laws, there have been reports of dissatisfaction with Putin’s leadership.

Russia’s spectacular military failures in Ukraine have sparked murmurs of opposition — especially among the country’s more hardline, pro-war groups.

While their anger has focused more on failing Russian generals, other military leaders — such as Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov — have been more outspoken about their dissatisfaction with the progress of the war.

If the trajectory of Putin’s war in Ukraine goes further down and discontent among Russia’s elites reaches boiling point, Kremlin insiders or opportunistic wildcards could mutinied. This could remove Putin from his position of ultimate authority.

A coordinated plot to usurp the despot through political will and influence – as Presidents Gorbachev and Khrushchev did before him – would likely emanate from Russia’s official power structure.

In the unlikely event that he is impeached and manages to escape, Putin is likely to flee abroad to avoid punishment at home.

Such a deal with Xi Jinping would make China an ideal destination for Putin.

It was not clear from Gerashchenko’s tweet what Xi would gain from such a deal, and he did not speculate on what Putin would offer Xi in return.

If Putin were to lose power, he would likely be seen as useless in Beijing’s own plan for the world, and would be considered a wanted man.

The ICC issued an arrest warrant earlier this month accusing Putin of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. It said there are reasonable grounds to believe that Putin bears individual criminal responsibility.

Russian officials have warned that any attempt to arrest Putin, Russia’s foremost leader since the last day of 1999, would amount to a declaration of war on the world’s largest nuclear power.

In its first order against Ukraine, the ICC called for the arrest of Putin on suspicion of unlawful deportation of children and illegal transfer of people from the territory of Ukraine to the Russian Federation since February 24 last year.

The Kremlin says the ICC’s arrest warrant is an excessively partisan decision, but meaningless with regard to Russia. Russian officials deny war crimes in Ukraine, saying the West has ignored Ukrainian war crimes.

Major powers such as Russia, the United States and China are not members of the ICC, although 123 countries are parties to the Rome Statute, which established the ICC, including Britain, France, Germany and some former Soviet republics such as Tajikistan.

Ukraine is not a member of the ICC, although Kiev has granted it the power to prosecute crimes committed on its territory.

After the order was issued earlier this month, an expert suggested the ICC’s indictment could expedite Putin.

Sir Geoffrey Nice, chief prosecutor in the trial of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, said it was “extremely important” that the ICC issue an arrest warrant for Putin.

He suggested that “labeling and treating Putin as a criminal” could lead to regime change or “encourage the process of replacement.”

“There is enough information leaking out to indicate that some are dissatisfied with his leadership,” Sir Geoffrey told Sky News on Friday.

“It matters because this man is now—as many would say he should have been a few weeks after the outbreak of war—is labeled a criminal.”

Sir Geoffrey added that the war in Ukraine is now a “proper, just war” that is “criminally directed.”