The fear increases Vladimir Putin could be preparing to attack Europe – including possible drone strikes.
It comes after CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise trip there Moscow on Tuesday. The spy chief has reportedly warned the Kremlin not to escalate the conflict Ukraineeither by using a nuclear weapon or by targeting Kiev‘s Western allies.
The “just don’t do it” advice was based on US intelligence that Russia is ready to act after its battlefield campaign in Ukraine once again stalled.
After the visit, the Kremlin hinted that it was not seeking peace with the West. It warned “it is too early to say whether the deep crisis in US-Russia relations can be overcome,” before boasting that “Ukraine is definitely losing the war.”
The developments occur at a particularly tense time NATOas Russian drones repeatedly test the defenses of countries along the alliance’s eastern border. But other European countries are also increasingly threatened.
Only this month, Germany faced a series of unexplained drone incidents. Leipzig-Halle Airport, a key NATO military logistics hub and a European base for Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines, has temporarily suspended flights after an armed drone was discovered next to a Ukrainian plane.
A cargo plane later collided with a small, unknown object, while the next day drones were spotted flying over a key military base in West Germany.
Western intelligence assessments have become increasingly dire, with US officials concerned that Moscow could try to seize NATO territory within weeks.
US officials reportedly believe Moscow could try to seize NATO territory
Possible scenarios range from a major cyber attack on armed groups occupying territory to an incursion along NATO’s eastern flank.
Moscow has already been accused of waging a shadow war across the continent through sabotage, cyberattacks, drones, disinformation and intimidation – tactics designed to cause disruption while falling below the threshold for a military response.
British spy chief Anne Keast-Butler has warned that Britain and its allies now occupy ‘a space between peace and war’, with Russian activities extending ‘from the seabed to cyberspace’.
Security experts have told Prime Minister Andy Burnham to be prepared for an “immediate response” from Putin following his declaration of Britain’s “unwavering” support for Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces.
Former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Fedorov said he could not “100 percent” rule out the prospect of “semi-military” action against Britain after Burnham’s visit to Kiev on Monday.
The prime minister agreed to hand over blueprints for British components for the Scalp missile – a French version of Britain’s Storm Shadow cruise missile – allowing Ukraine to produce the long-range weapon domestically.
In return, he received what officials described as a “goldmine” of battlefield data to help bolster British security.
Mr Fedorov said: ‘Sooner or later there may be not only a verbal but perhaps also a visible response from Russia to Britain.’
When asked to explain what this might look like, he said: “It could be a so-called technical response, maybe some hackers are attacking from [an] unknown source.
“There could be several political steps and I cannot 100 percent rule out that there is a semi-military action [action].’
Russian drones are already testing European airspace and defenses, posing a major threat to the continent’s security.
Western fighter jets have been used numerous times in recent weeks to shoot down drones. And the number of incidents involving fighter jets deployed in response to Russian incursions has more than doubled from a year ago.
Russian opposition politician Garry Kasparov has warned that Putin could first test NATO’s resolve in the Baltic region.
‘I think the odds [are] that he will cross NATO borders – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland – just a small incursion using drones,” he said.
“I think the chances are increasing because Putin needs a winning narrative and Ukraine doesn’t offer that.”
According to Western intelligence sources, Russia has also launched a new wave of attacks against European defense manufacturers in recent weeks, using local criminals to carry out acts of sabotage.
Officials believe the attacks were carefully calibrated to avoid triggering Article 5, NATO’s mutual defense clause.
This week, Latvia arrested three of its own nationals over a suspected arson attack on a drone manufacturer in Estonia, while explosions have occurred this month at major weapons manufacturers in Italy and Bulgaria.
A bomb disposal robot deployed by police at Germany’s Leipzig-Halle airport after a drone was found near a Ukrainian plane
Gas bubbles from the Nord Stream 2 leak reaching the surface of the Baltic Sea in the area show a disturbance with a diameter of over a kilometer
And earlier this year, four people were arrested after a fire nearly destroyed a Czech factory that made drones and thermal optics for Ukraine.
Drone threats also extend to Britain’s critical infrastructure.
Historian Mark Galeotti wrote for the Daily Mail: “Russia is operating on us on multiple levels, and the need for the public to be on guard has never been more urgent.”
Meanwhile, intelligence sources also say that the possibility of Russia moving from covert operations to a direct military confrontation with NATO – which was seen as unlikely while Russia was fighting in Ukraine – can no longer be dismissed.
One theory is that Russia could try to conquer a city or region in Poland or one of the three Baltic states.
All three were formerly part of the Russian Empire and have ethnic Russian minorities that Moscow has used in its propaganda.
They are also located between Russia and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, home to the Russian Baltic Fleet.
The Atlantic Council describes the Baltic states as a high priority for Russian disinformation and subversion, as well as potential outright aggression.
Polish security experts have warned of minor raids by troops targeting power plants, which could then be explained as the result of a GPS navigation error.
Andy Burnham with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev earlier this week. Britain will continue to provide defense support to Ukraine despite Russia’s threats
An attack on the ground could come from Kaliningrad – which borders northern Poland – or from Belarus in the east.
Finland and Sweden are also considered targets of Russian hostility following their decision to join NATO.
Norway, meanwhile, shares a border with Russia and has strongly supported Ukraine and Western sanctions.
There are also fears that Russia could potentially seize a small island in the Baltic Sea to test NATO’s political unity and military response.
However, Russia would be taking a huge risk by attacking NATO directly. The alliance still has far greater military assets than Russia, including more than three million active personnel, thousands of aircraft and more than a thousand military ships.
That’s why intelligence officials say the most immediate threat will likely come from explosions, vandalism, fires and covert operations carried out from Europe.
Since Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Western officials have linked Moscow to 191 acts of sabotage, arson and disruption across Europe, the Atlantic Council said.
A Financial Times report cited by the Atlantic Council found that teenagers across Europe were recruited through messaging apps like Telegram to carry out sabotage, sometimes for relatively small payments.
In the past year alone, teenagers from Poland, the Netherlands and Britain have been arrested after being recruited by Russian hackers to spy and vandalize.
In 2025, 180 migrants, mainly from Pakistan and Afghanistan, used the tunnel to cross the border between Belarus and Poland
And Germany is now investigating a suspected Russian intelligence weapons cache discovered in a forest near Berlin.
Across Europe, suspected Russian arson attacks have also targeted commercial and strategic locations, including an Ikea store in Vilnius and a shopping center in Warsaw.
In Britain, a factory and warehouse complex owned by a Ukrainian business leader was set on fire in March 2024.
British police said the leader had been recruited and controlled online by people linked to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group.
Russian cyber units have targeted critical systems, including power plants, since at least mid-2010.
On the day Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a cyberattack on the Viasat satellite internet system caused disruptions across Central and Eastern Europe. The EU, US and UK later condemned the attack as Russian.
The Nordic and Baltic countries have reported an increase in GPS jamming and spoofing since 2022, impacting civilian aircraft, ships and drones.
Some of Europe’s most vulnerable infrastructure is not on land, but hundreds of meters under the sea. Yet the destruction of parts of the Nord Stream one- and two-gas pipelines in September 2022 exposed the vulnerability of Europe’s seabed infrastructure to sabotage by Russia.
The perpetrators remain disputed, but since then the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was ruptured along with a data cable in October 2023, while in November and December 2024 two fiber optic internet cables and two power cables were severed in the region.
Russia’s pressure campaign against Europe also extends to the continent’s borders, where the country is increasingly using migration as a weapon.
Thousands of migrants have been sent across Poland’s eastern border in recent months along with Russia’s ally Belarus.
In 2025, four tunnels were discovered under the border between the two countries – and 180 migrants, mainly from Pakistan and Afghanistan, were arrested as they emerged.
Belarus is said to have used Middle Eastern specialists to design the tunnels, with Polish officials claiming these people had a ‘high level of expertise’.
While it is difficult to prove which groups took part, it is believed that Islamic State, Hamas, Hezbollah and Kurdish fighters could be involved.
