AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New York’s special congressional election
WASHINGTON — The Republican majority in the House of Representatives could be on the ballot again after Tuesday’s special congressional elections in Buffalo — at least temporarily.
Voters are choosing a replacement for Democrat Brian Higgins, a longtime House member who cited Congress’s “slow and frustrating” pace before resigning in February. Democrats have a long track record of success in the 26th Congressional District, and their nominee is heavily favored to win on Tuesday.
Instead of holding a traditional primary, local party officials are choosing the nominees for the special elections for Congress in New York. Democrats selected Buffalo state Sen. Tim Kennedy, while Republicans nominated West Seneca City Supervisor Gary Dickson.
After a messy redistricting process in 2022, New York recently approved new congressional maps, which will take effect for the 2024 elections. For now, New York is filling Higgins’ vacancy under old congressional lines. The 26th District, however, changes little under the revised maps, meaning whoever wins the special election to fill out the remainder of Higgins’ term will face a similar electorate in November.
A Democratic victory would shrink the 218-212 Republican majority by one member — but not necessarily for long. Three special elections are scheduled for the end of June in previously Republican-held districts.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
The congressional elections will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
The Associated Press will cover the special election in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Kennedy’s name appears on the ballot among the Democratic Party and the Working Families Party. Dickson appears as a candidate for the Republican and Conservative parties.
Any voter registered in New York’s 26th Congressional District can participate in this special election.
New York’s 26th runs along the Niagara River, which separates western New York from Canada. The majority of Republican votes in the district come from the area that lies in Niagara County, at the northern tip. However, that is the least populated part of the district. Most votes come from the southern part of the district in Erie County, which leans heavily toward Democrats.
The Democrats have been successful in the congressional district in recent elections. Higgins represented a House seat in Buffalo for 20 years, and Joe Biden carried the district by double digits in 2020 when he defeated President Donald Trump.
For many voters in the congressional district, the two nominees will be household names. For more than a decade, Kennedy has represented Buffalo in the Senate in a district that overlaps with the 26th Congressional District. Dickson, meanwhile, appeared on the ballot in West Seneca in 2019 and 2023, albeit in a much smaller election for city supervisor.
Dickson said he believes his path to victory depends not only on consolidating votes in the northern part of the district, but also on winning working-class voters in the southeast corner and turning out suburban voters who are frustrated by high taxes in Amherst. As of the final filing deadline on April 10, Kennedy’s campaign had spent fifty times more on the race than Dickson’s.
The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
A recount is required if a candidate wins by 20 votes or fewer or by less than half a percentage point. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
As of November 1, there were 512,774 registered voters in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Of those, almost 50% were Democrats and 22% were Republicans. The last race for the district took place in November 2022. At that time, 48% of registered voters showed up.
But there was a recent special election for the New York House of Representatives, when Democrat Tom Suozzi replaced Republican George Santos on Long Island in February. As of Nov. 1, there were more than 570,000 registered voters in the 3rd District, and about 30% voted in the special election.
Santos had won office in what had been a reliably Democratic district, in part by falsely portraying himself as an American success story — a son of working-class immigrants who turned himself into a wealthy dealmaker on Wall Street. But many elements of Santos’ life story were later exposed as fabrications, and he was indicted on multiple charges, including allegations that he stole money from Republican donors. He has pleaded not guilty.
Ahead of Tuesday’s special election, just over 8,700 early votes had been cast as of April 23. Nearly 69% of those early votes came from registered Democrats, while 19% came from Republicans.
In the 2022 election, the AP first reported results at 9:43 p.m. ET, or 43 minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 11:00 PM ET with approximately 86% of the total votes counted.