The number of people infected by the ongoing salmonella outbreak could be more than four times greater than official figures suggest, an expert has warned.
Officials from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said yesterday that the total number of confirmed cases had reached 528, spread across three separate ‘infection clusters’.
Two people have also died as a result of the outbreak, which officials suspect was caused by imported eggs.
But Paul Wigley, professor of animal microbial ecosystems at the University of Bristol, says the actual number of infections could be significantly higher.
“There could be between 1,500 and 2,000,” he told the Daily Mail. ‘I wouldn’t be surprised if it is around 2,000 points.
‘Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is much higher. But I would expect about 1,500 to 2,000 cases.”
There are around 10,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonella in Britain each year.
However, leaders at the Food Standards Agency (FSA) believe the real number is around 32,000.
The number of people infected in the ongoing salmonella outbreaks – linked to imported eggs – could be more than four times greater than official figures suggest, an expert has warned.
Professor Wigley said this is because hundreds of patients can have milder forms of the disease without serious symptoms such as long-term diarrhea.
They are unlikely to seek medical attention, so they may not be analyzed and later confirmed as an official case.
While salmonella – caused by bacteria that enter the body – can be fatal, some people with stronger immune systems can shake off the disease in about a week.
“Most people will just say, I’m not that sick, I’m not doing well, but I’m going to get on with it,” Professor Wigley explained.
However, he warned that even these people can experience “uncomfortable and annoying” symptoms.
Although milder symptoms include stomach cramps, prolonged bouts of diarrhea can lead to severe dehydration.
Other more dangerous reactions include blood poisoning, organ failure and death.
Salmonella is typically caught by eating contaminated foods, such as poultry, meat, eggs, raw fruits and vegetables, and unpasteurized dairy products.
Those most at risk for fatal complications include infants, pregnant women, the elderly, and people with weakened immune systems.
More than a third of patients in the three outbreaks required hospital treatment.
Professor Wigley’s comments come weeks after Dr Damien Tully, from the Medical Research Council, said the number of confirmed cases was ‘probably just the tip of the iceberg’.
He added: ‘Many salmonella infections cause relatively short-lived gastrointestinal illness and people can recover without ever being tested, meaning the actual number of infections associated with an outbreak may be significantly higher than the number identified by laboratory surveillance.’
It is clear that health chiefs are aware that there are likely to be more infections than officially reported.
Officials have so far said the infections have been linked to eating out in “small cafes, restaurants and takeaways.”
Food safety chiefs have urged Britons to avoid ‘raw or lightly cooked egg products’ such as mousses, mayonnaise or hollandaise sauce.
Vulnerable groups – including the over-65s, pregnant women and under-fives – are also advised to avoid runny eggs when eating out.
Officials say there is no evidence that eggs produced in Britain pose any threat.
Hannah Charles, chief epidemiologist at UKHSA, said yesterday: ‘We continue to work closely with the Food Standards Agency and other public health partners to investigate these Salmonella clusters.
‘Our investigation to date points to a link with imported eggs, but this investigation is ongoing. We will continue to monitor the cases and investigate further common sources as they come to light.”
She also stressed that the overall risk to the public “remains low.”
