Your 2023 NRL season betting guide from premiership champ to individual tryscorer and points markets
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Although the Panthers’ big final win feels like yesterday, the 2023 NRL season is here, which means it’s time for fans to put their money where their words are.
As anticipation builds leading up to the start of the season between the Eels and Storm, fans are beginning to debate who will take the title, which team will end up with the dreaded spoon and which player will wow fans with their 3-point feats.
For any fan who likes to have a flutter, it’s a chance to find some serious betting value, from the team market to the individual player.
The most popular market is still the general prime minister winnerwith BetRight CEO Anthony Waller stressing value over favoritism.
“The Panthers remain the premiership favorites for a three-time $4 championship, although they have been adrift of late, with some season-ending injuries and their recent loss to St Helens,” he said.
Can the Panthers go back to back? Odds say yes, but the best value could be elsewhere after a slow preseason
Of course they will be there or around. Even if key injuries hit Penrith, there are plenty of capable youngsters to jump straight into the void, even with a small exodus of players from last year’s grand final.
They have a monster forward package, an incredible backbone (even with the departure of Api Koroisau) and are obviously just as well trained as a team in competition given that many have played together since junior soccer.
But something doesn’t feel quite right, and while premierships aren’t won in pre-season, they have been anything but impressive in the World Cup Challenge loss to the Saints. $4 doesn’t present much value.
All the talk has been about the amazing additions the Roosters continue to make, even though they already have a star-studded roster led by James Tedesco.
They desperately needed a shot into the front pack, which they got, and with a little more luck in the injury department after an impressive few years, they look much better valued, although that is fading fast!
New Roosters recruit Brandon ‘Hectic Cheese’ Smith is one of many superstar additions the club have made for a premiership bent
“The best backed team to win the 2023 premiership has been the Sydney Roosters, who opened for $8 and are now $6,” said Waller, explaining how well Trent Robinson’s men have fared on the market.
Led superbly by reigning Dally M Medal Nicho Hynes, the Sharks present decent value at $13, despite lacking star power in the forward pack.
They had a disappointing exit from the final last year, but what Craig Fitzgibbon has done in such a short time is nothing short of extraordinary, and will have his champion team (rather than a team of champions) humming.
When one team wins, another must lose (unless they’re lucky enough to reach the golden point and tie!) and the most-loss market is as spicy as ever, with plenty of value for punters.
Of course, the rookies in the competition, the Dolphins, are the favorites ($2.60) on the market, but there are some teams that will struggle this year and Wayne Bennett already seems to have done a lot of good things in Redcliffe.
It’s the Dragons where things look particularly bleak.
Mikaele Ravalawa (left, pictured at a game last season with Tariq Sims) was involved in a drunken brawl with a teammate during preseason.
Dragons skipper Ben Hunt denies there is a cultural problem at the club but will take on him to get the wins at the embattled club.
Under fire Anthony Griffin doesn’t appear to have a galvanized team, one that is already weak enough and lacking depth to begin with, after a series of off-pitch dramas that began with no one showing up for the club’s opening night.
There’s been a drunken brawl after a preseason game and multiple police investigations, and it’s certainly piqued the interest of punters.
‘As premiership debutants the Dolphins top the Market with the most losses at $2.60, there has been consistent support for the Dragons to win the scoop due to their poor Test form, off-field dramas, and coach under pressure,’ Waller explained.
“Many bettors on Bet Right have been taking advantage of the $21 on offer for the Dolphins to have a winless season.”
Even the Warriors ($8) could be on the wrong end of the ladder even though they were finally able to return home, after being in Australia for Covid and away from family and friends.
They are brilliant at the best of times, but can be very careless when it comes to mistakes and discipline, and if injuries hit key men it could spell trouble.
Individual markets always present a much more enticing prospect for value-hungry bettors, with even the most confident favorites just one injury away from going down.
Waller said there was brilliant value to be found in the Highest Trials Scorer market, which was won by favorite Alex Johnston ($5) last year, and the preseason yielded some surprise candidates.
South Sydney scoring machine Alex Johnston racks up another final season, where he scored the most in the competition.
“With some injuries from the Panthers, Sunia Turuva has recently found herself on the market at $17,” he said.
‘Will Warbrick ($26) is an Australian Rugby 7s star who has joined the Melbourne Storm and the post is that he has secured a place on the wing thanks to his scoring-trying performances in recent Storms tests.
“Alofiana Khan Pereira of the Gold Coast Titans has also been targeted for $51 by some smart bettors at Bet Right,” Waller said of what better value market bettors are likely to find.
Manly are a tough nut to crack when it comes to betting prospects, but the old Reuben Garrick continues to fly under the radar, and the improved play we’ve seen from them in preparation for the season makes $26 look juicy. He just needs Tom Trbojevic ($19) to keep him healthy for rain tests on the wing!
Don’t worry about the looks of rising youngsters Selwyn Cobbo ($23), Joseph Suaalii ($17), and Murray Tualagi ($21) for a bit of spec, either.
Finally, the most curious and most difficult market to choose is the top points scorer.
Panthers superstar Nathan Cleary is once again the favorite to score the most points – he just needs to stay healthy to be right in the mix.
Storm backline service Nick Meaney has been crushed in betting with the news that Papenhuyzen’s injury is worse than first feared.
It won’t exactly surprise anyone to see Panther superstar Nathan Cleary ($4.50) lead the market, but if Mitchell Moses ($21) can continue his rise as one of the best clutch-halves and kickers in the competition, he could be worth a little flutter.
The aforementioned Garrick ($9), who won the gong two seasons ago, is about as polished as it gets when it comes to shooting and finishing, but Waller said there’s a surprise contender who has been sensationally crushed in the betting.
“While Panthers superstar Nathan Cleary is the favorite to be the leading points scorer in 2023, there has been strong support for Nick Meaney ($26 to $9) due to Ryan Papenhuyzen’s injury,” he said. .
In a year that promises to be tighter than ever, go to betright.com.au for all your NRL futures and betting markets throughout the season, and find something of value before the Eels kick off the season with a win (sorry Storm fans!) on Thursday night.