The World Health Organization has published a list of more than 30 pathogens likely to cause the next pandemic.
One of the most dangerous viruses and bacteria is the bird flu H5N1. This bacteria is spreading in the US and scientists fear that this bacteria can easily mutate and jump from one person to another.
There are also fears about mosquito-borne dengue fever, sometimes called the “bone-breaking disease,” which is spreading at an unprecedented rate in the US.
And monkeypox, which caused a global epidemic in 2022, was also on the list, amid an outbreak of a deadlier and more contagious variant in Africa.
Above is a selection of pathogens listed as having a “high” chance of causing the next pandemic or major outbreak.
More than half of the listings were new compared to the 2017 list, when the list was first published.
Hantavirus, a virus that spreads among rodents, mosquito-borne West Nile virus, influenza and Covid have also been implicated.
Scientists have also added smallpox, although this virus has now been eradicated. They fear that the virus could be accidentally released in a laboratory and spread rapidly, since few people are immune to the virus.
And rodent-borne Lassa fever, which can cause bleeding of the gums, eyes and nose and seizures in patients.
The list was compiled by 200 scientists from more than 50 countries after studying a shortlist of 1,600 bacteria and viruses.
Those labeled as “pandemic potential” were highly contagious and virulent – or capable of causing serious disease in humans.
The most dangerous diseases were also those for which no vaccines or treatments were available.
Previously, the 2017 and 2018 lists contained only about ten pathogens.
The list has been updated due to climate change, deforestation and increased international travel, which could make other diseases more likely to cause a new outbreak (stock)
| Disease | Latin name | Risk level |
|---|---|---|
| Lassa fever Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever Cholera Black Death Shigellosis Salmonella Pneumonia MERS; Middle East Respiratory Virus SARS; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Ebola Marburg virus Zika virus Dengue fever Yellow fever Tick-borne encephalitis West Nile virus Hantavirus Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Bird flu (H1 to H10) Swine flu (H1 to H3) Nipah virus SFTS fever Rift Valley Fever Smallpox Smallpox virus Monkeypox Chikungunya virus Venezuelan equine encephalitis Pathogen X Adenovirus Adenovirus 14 Hand, foot and mouth disease Lentivirus Borna disease virus Hepatitis C Hepatitis E HerpesHPV Parvovirus | Mammarenavirus lassaense Mammarenavirus juniense Vibrio Cholerae Serotype 1 Yersinia pestis Shigella dysentery Salmonella enterica Klebsiella pneumoniae Subgenus Merbecovirus Subgenus Sarbecovirus Orthoebolavirus zairense Orthoebolavirus Sudan Orthoebolavirus zikaense Orthoflavivirus dengue Orthoflavivirus taste Orthoflavivirus encephalitis Orthoflavivirus nilense Orthohantavirus synonym Orthovirus hemorrhages Alpha influenza virus influenzae Alpha influenza virus influenzae Henipavirus-nipahense Bandavirus dabieense Phlebovirus riftense Orthovirus smallpox Orthovirus vaccinia Orthovirus monkeypox Alphavirus chikungunya Alphavirus Venezuelan Pathogen X Recombinant Mastadenovirus Mastadenovirus blackbeardi serotype 14 Enterovirus coxsackiepol Lentivirus humimdef1 Bornean Orthobornavirus Orthohepadnavirus hominoidei C Paslahepevirus balayani 3 HerpesviridaePapillomaviridaeProtoparvovirus carnivoran | HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH low-average low-average medium medium low low low layer layer layer |
But researchers have since expanded the list, as there are more opportunities for diseases to spread from animals to humans and between different parts of the world.
According to scientists, urbanization and deforestation have led to increased contact between wildlife and humans. At the same time, increased international travel creates new opportunities for a disease to spread to other parts of the world.
There are also concerns that climate change could trigger outbreaks by spreading diseases to new areas.
Dr. Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, who led the report, said Nature: ‘The prioritization process helps identify critical knowledge gaps that need to be addressed urgently.’
Other diseases also mentioned in the report were five bacteria, including cholera – which can cause stomach upset – and Yersinia pestis – the bacterium responsible for the plague.
The bat-borne Nipah virus was also still on the list. This virus can cause severe swelling in the brain.
Many of the diseases on the list have only been diagnosed sporadically to date.
However, researchers warned that if they underwent mutations that made them more likely to spread between people, they could cause an outbreak.
Most diseases are transmitted by ticks, bats, mosquitoes, rodents or by humans. They are often spread via respiratory droplets.
To cause a pandemic, a virus or bacteria must spread between people, be detected worldwide, and cause disease.