James Carville is an experienced political consultant who served as lead campaign strategist for President Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign
How ironic it is that Democrats will again hold the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 2024.
Because I fear a repeat of 1968.
Nearly sixty years ago, delegates gathered at the International Amphitheater in the Windy City to nominate Hubert Humphrey for president, but outside it was chaos.
Ten thousand anti-Vietnam war demonstrators were met by more than two thousand police officers and members of the National Guard.
I remember seeing it all as a 23 year old, fresh out of the Marine Corps. The war was as real as it could be for me.
Tear gas was fired into the crowd. Officers beat demonstrators indiscriminately. Hundreds were sent to hospital and more were injured.
Television cameras captured it all, communicating to Americans at home that the disorder they feared was worse than it seemed.
I don’t predict that the streets of Chicago will erupt in violence again, but if tensions within the Democratic party continue to rise over the ongoing war between Israel and Gaza, the disaffected will look for an outlet. And their numbers can be overwhelming.
In Michigan’s Democratic primary, 100,000 voters cast their ballots for “uncommitted” instead of President Joe Biden. And along with the Arab-American communities in Dearborn and Hamtramck and students in Ann Arbor, Michigan, black voters are angry about the massacre in Gaza.
Last weekend, First Lady Jill Biden was harassed during a campaign stop in Arizona. “It’s a genocide, Jill!” shouted one protester. “You and your husband support the genocide of the Palestinian people!” shouted another.
Nearly sixty years ago, delegates gathered at the International Amphitheater in the Windy City to nominate Hubert Humphrey for president, but outside it was chaos. (Above) Police and protesters clash at the Conrad Hilton Hotel on Chicago’s Michigan Avenue on August 28, 1968 during the Democratic National Convention
Tear gas was fired into the crowd. Officers beat demonstrators indiscriminately. Hundreds were sent to hospital and more were injured. (Above) Protester with his hands on his head is led down Michigan Avenue by Chicago police on the night of August 28, 1968
I remember seeing it all as a 23 year old, fresh out of the Marine Corps. The war was as real as it could be for me. (Above) Author James Carville with Bill Clinton in 1992
Certainly the far left in America, of which I have a very low opinion, is being mobilized by the war. And they will undoubtedly try to exploit the unrest it causes, foolishly believing that the unrest will advance their cause. But the deep unease about this conflict extends far beyond ordinary people.
It would be a serious mistake if Democrats ignored that.
It is becoming increasingly clear that if Biden wins a second term, it will not be with a duplication of his 2020 coalition. A winning alliance for the Democrats in 2024 will be older and whiter.
Enthusiasm among Democratic voters is in the toilet. Support among black Americans, especially black men, and people under 30 is nowhere near where it should be.
Another four months of war will only make times in Chicago even more challenging – and the White House knows it.
No wonder President Biden said before the Michigan primaries that he thought a ceasefire was imminent, even though he may have been the only person who believed it. Maybe it was wishful thinking.
During the president’s impromptu press conference at the White House last month, following Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report, the president walked away from the podium, only to turn on his heel and ask another question about… Gaza.
Vice President Kamala Harris demanded an immediate ceasefire in Gaza on Sunday, her most direct rebuke of the Israeli government yet. ‘The people in Gaza are starving. The conditions are inhumane and our common humanity compels us to take action,” she said as she stood in front of the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama, where state troopers brutally beat civil rights demonstrators nearly six decades ago.
And on Monday, Harris met at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main political rival.
There is no doubt that the Republican Party will face even tougher headwinds than the Democrats in 2024. Republicans have won virtually nothing since the Supreme Court overturned Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ruling that the Constitution does not guarantee a woman’s right to an abortion.
But either way, it would be incredible folly for Democrats to ignore the magnitude of their political problem.
My other big concern, which I have talked about a lot, is President Biden’s age. The administration can potentially improve the situation in the Middle East by reining in the Israelis or sending more humanitarian aid to Gaza, but it will not reduce the number of candles on the president’s birthday cake.
I’ve been around for a long time and all this together tells me that there will be some very unpredictable moments in these elections.
I don’t know exactly what they’re going to be. But I promise you: they will come.
Maybe in Chicago.
And Democrats are running out of time to do anything about it.