LOS ANGELES — Heavily Democratic California may seem an unlikely national battleground, but a series of competitive contests in the U.S. House of Representatives is once again poised to play a crucial role in determining control of the chamber as Republicans wrest their fragile majority in a want to preserve a deeply divided nation.
The state that was once home to Republican presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan has become so solidly Democratic that a Republican presidential candidate has not won a general election in California since the 1980s. Democrats hold every statewide office and dominate the legislature, while Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans by an overwhelming 2-to-1.
Yet pockets of conservative strength still persist, especially in Southern California’s suburbs and the Central Valley farm belt. As in 2022, the most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts held in 2020 by then-candidate Joe Biden — truly competitive territory is declining nationally.
Leaders in both parties agree that the outcome in California could be the lever that determines who holds the gavel in 2025, after GOP victories in 2022 helped the party gain control. The House currently has 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats and three vacancies.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is among those raising money to help his party retake the House of Representatives. He warns of a “disastrous future” if former President Donald Trump wins the White House and Republicans take control of the Senate. In that scenario, Democrats must have the House of Representatives to have any chance of blocking Trump’s agenda, Newsom warns.
If Democrats win four Republican Party-controlled districts in the state, “we will flip the House in November,” Newsom wrote in a recent fundraising pitch. “And each of them has a very good chance.”
Thanks to the Democratic side of the state, Republicans hold only 11 of the 52 seats in the House of Representatives. In total, there appear to be about ten districts in play statewide, and in some cases the primaries could result in rematches from two years ago. There are no incumbents in immediate danger.
Voting is about to begin, with a Monday deadline for counties to mail out ballots.
In the emerging struggle, fear of the opposition animates the sales pitch. Democrats warn of Trump’s possible return to Washington, threats to abortion rights and unchecked gun violence. Republicans blame the party that dominates state politics for high taxes, inflation, troublesome crime rates and an out-of-control homelessness crisis.
It is unknown to what extent the presidential battle will filter into the House races. Turnout could be depressed if President Joe Biden and Trump appear assured of the nominations. Biden’s popularity has waned both in the state and nationally, and Trump is widely loathed in California beyond his loyal base.
Under California election rules, Democrats and Republicans appear on the same primary ballot and the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of political party.
THE SURVIVOR: A GOP CONGRESSMAN IN DEMOCRATIC LA COUNTY
Rep. Mike Garcia is the last Republican member of Congress anchored in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County. The once conservative 27th District, which cuts through the suburbs and high desert north of Los Angeles, has become one of the most competitive battlegrounds in the country.
The district has a 12-point Democratic registration advantage, but through three elections, Garcia has shown an uncanny ability to overcome the odds and confuse rivals. It wasn’t easy: Garcia was re-elected in 2020 with 333 votes.
The former Navy fighter pilot and Trump supporter with a reliably conservative voting record was first elected in a battle against California’s liberal-leaning government: “I don’t want my country to turn into what my state has become.”
Garcia’s military service — he flew more than 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom — would come in handy in a district that is home to defense industries and popular with Los Angeles veterans, police officers and firefighters. As the son of a Mexican immigrant father, his Spanish surname is likely an advantage in a district with a significant Latino population. He has also shown a keen ear for local issues, including concerns about crime and illegal marijuana cultivation.
The leading Democrat in the primary is George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff, backed by the House Democrats’ campaign arm. He emphasizes abortion rights and environmental protections and labels Garcia as out of step with the district.
A TOSS-UP DISTRICT THAT WAS ONCE THE HEART OF ‘REAGAN LAND’
Orange County’s 47th District runs along the California coast southeast of Los Angeles and was once the heart of “Reagan Country,” a region long synonymous with conservative politics and known for its ties to the former president. But the county that was once largely white and Republican has become demographically diverse and increasingly Democratic, and the seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, is up for grabs.
Republicans consider it a top target.
Former lawmaker Scott Baugh, who narrowly lost to Porter in 2022, is the leading Republican as two Democrats duel to get on the November ballot, say Sens. David Min and Joanna Weiss, who founded an organization that promotes progressive candidates.
A STRONG DEMOCRATIC DISTRICT THAT VOTES FOR REPUBLIC
The Central Valley farm belt is a political conundrum. Districts in the vast region sometimes called America’s salad bowl tend to have significant Democratic registration advantages, but those seats are often held by Republicans.
A case in point is Rep. David Valadao, a Republican who has held his ground despite major registration deficits. Democrats have a 16-point lead in his 22nd district. He held his seat from 2013 to January 2019, losing it for one term and then winning it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat TJ Cox.
He may be heading for a rematch in November with Rudy Salas, the Democrat he defeated in 2022 and who is backed by the House Democrats’ campaign arm. Valadao has emphasized his independent nature while highlighting his efforts to secure more water for farmers, an ongoing problem in the Central Valley. Salas, considered a moderate, has portrayed Valadao as a Trump acolyte masquerading as a centrist.
Both Salas and Valadao face rivals within their own parties in the primaries. Republican farmer Chris Mathys wants to surprise Valadao and Senator Melissa Hurtado is competing with Salas for Democratic votes.
ROUND TWO IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
Republican John Duarte defeated Democrat Adam Gray in 2022 in what was then a new House district in the Central Valley. He won by just 564 votes, the largest congressional race in the state that year.
They are the only candidates in the March 5 primary, setting up a rematch in the 13th District, which has a prominent Democratic tilt and a large Latino population. But the most likely voters tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners, as is the case across the state.
Gray, who is backed by the House Democrats’ campaign arm, argues that his party cannot regain the majority in the House of Representatives without winning his district.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL REMATCH EAST OF LOS ANGELES
Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation, held off Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, by about 5 points in a district east of Los Angeles in 2022. divided between Republicans and Democrats.
There could be a rematch this year.
Calvert brings the benefits of an incumbency, but his conservative credentials and Trump support could lead to problems in a district with many transplants from Los Angeles and the city of Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ voters. Rollins is gay.
Rollins, who is backed by the House Democrats’ campaign arm, says it is time for new leadership and has painted Calvert as an extremist.
SOUTH KOREAN IMMIGRANT SEARCHES FOR ANOTHER TERM IN DISTRICT CREATED TO EMPOWER Asians
Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant, is seeking a new term in a Southern California district specifically designed to give Asian Americans a stronger voice on Capitol Hill. Asian Americans make up the largest group in the 45th District, anchored in Orange County. Democrats have a modest registration lead.
Steel first won the seat in 2020 and then prevailed in 2022 with a 5-point victory in the district, which includes the country’s largest Vietnamese community.
Four Democrats are running this year, including Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, the daughter of a Vietnamese refugee father and a Mexican immigrant mother who was endorsed by the state Democratic Party, and lawyer and workers’ rights advocate Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees.
In Congress, Steel has been outspoken in her opposition to tax increases, saying she strongly supports Israel in its war with Hamas and supporting a bill that would expand oversight of foreign money in higher education, which passed last year the House of Representatives has passed.
The race will be watched nationally for hints about the preferences of Asian American voters.
DEMOCRAT DEFENDS COASTAL DISTRICT WITH STRONG MILITARY TIES
Four Republicans are voting in the 49th District, which runs through Orange and San Diego counties, where Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is seeking another term.
Coastal California generally leans Democratic, but the race is seen as competitive. In 2022, Levin received a late hour visit from Biden in hopes of boosting his chances and achieving a five-point victory.
In Congress, Levin has focused on veterans’ issues, as well as climate change and the environment, in a district that spans Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton.
Major issues in the race included immigration, housing and inflation.
“The American people need leadership from Congress, not continued Republican chaos,” Levin said in a tweet. “House Democrats are ready to find common ground and a bipartisan path forward.”