Russia may be planning to blow up Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Kiev warned, after explosions at a major dam and hydroelectric power station caused massive flooding in the Kherson region and sparked a humanitarian disaster.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and is located about 80 miles up the Dnieper River from the Kakhovka Dam, which was severely damaged by explosions on June 6.
Since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, fears of a nuclear disaster have been sparked several times when the plant was fired on about six times and was temporarily disconnected from Ukraine’s power grid.
Those fears rose again when Ukrainian officials said the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant may be hit by the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, whose waters vitally cool nuclear reactors.
Ukraine’s state-owned nuclear company Energoatom later allayed those fears when it stated that the Zaporizhzhia facility’s cooling pond was full and had sufficient reserves to manage.
But Zelensky’s top security official, Oleksiy Danilov, later said Putin’s next move could be to attack the Zaporizhzhia plant, which could lead to catastrophic nuclear consequences.
With the help of Darya Dolzikova and Jack Watling of the RUSI think tank, MailOnline examines whether Russia could – or would – take the risk of destroying Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
A view shows the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during the Russia-Ukraine conflict outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region
The Zaporizhzhia Power Plant is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and is located about 130 kilometers up the Dnieper River from the Kakhovka Dam, which was badly damaged by explosions earlier this week.
Can Russia Blow Up Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant?
Yes. The power plant – the largest in Europe – stands on land currently occupied by Russia and its troops are stationed at the plant. They are believed to have mined it and stored munitions and explosives in and around the reactor buildings.
In April this year, a Russian mine exploded near the engine room of the fourth nuclear reactor, according to the Ukrainian nuclear power plant.
As Ukraine approaches its counter-offensive, more Russian units have been moved to the factory and defensive positions have been built on the roof. There are currently more troops at the factory than civilian employees.
Russian forces could therefore cause a deliberate or accidental explosion at the site.
Would Russia blow up the factory?
Possible. Indeed, Russian officials responsible for the occupation of Ukraine think in these terms, they have debated it, and it might have some value to them.
The fact that it would cause suffering to Ukrainian civilians, Russian soldiers at the factory and possible radioactive fallout in Russia itself should not be taken as a deterrent.
Russian authorities have repeatedly warned of the risks of a dirty bombing in Ukraine or false flag attacks on the factory, creating a pretext for blaming Kiev for disaster.
There is no indication that Moscow has decided whether or not to sabotage the plant, but it does indicate that the Kremlin’s military planners are keeping the option on the table.
The power plant – the largest in Europe – stands on land currently occupied by Russia and its troops are stationed at the plant
Why would Russia blow up the factory?
If Ukraine’s troops broke through Russian defenses to the south, sabotage of the plant could help slow or halt the advance.
Blowing up the plant would force Ukrainian troops to deal with the fallout – which would almost certainly affect several major cities – rather than continue their assault.
The effects of the radioactive fallout could also deprive Ukrainian forces of the ability to advance for future attacks.
Or Russia could stop causing an explosion.
Triggering events that would lead to disaster — such as cutting power to the cooling systems — would force Ukrainian troops to divert to deal with them, slowing them down.
Russia may also reason that the imminent destruction of the power plant may be enough to force Ukraine to change its battle plans to avoid the area.
Moscow could use the threat of a factory disaster as a way to put pressure on Ukraine’s western allies, without having to resort to nuclear weapons.
The possibility that Russia is fabricating a radiological incident at the power plant to spoil a Ukrainian offensive should not be ignored.
What would be the consequences of the disaster?
While the Chernobyl nuclear disaster looms large in people’s minds, the consequences of a disaster in Zaporizhzhia are likely to be in line with what happened in Fukushima.
In that incident, an earthquake and tsunami caused the meltdown of several reactors at the Japanese plant and an explosion that breached one of the containment buildings.
While not on the scale of the 1986 Chernobyl explosion, it still resulted in the evacuation of 100,000 due to radioactive contamination in the areas surrounding the reactor.
In the case of Zaporizhzhia, the nuclear power plant is less than 10 miles from the city of Nikopol, which had a population of 115,000 before the war and was almost certain to be hit.
The city of Zaporizhzhia itself is less than 56 kilometers away and was home to 750,000 people before the war, while Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih – which together accounted for some 1.5 million people – are within 70 kilometers.
Experts have previously warned that the prevailing winds at the plant could easily carry the radioactive fallout to Russian-occupied territories and possibly Russia itself.