In 2021, China came within one win of a draw with the US for the most gold medals at that year’s Games. Is this the year the Americans lose their top spot?
The short answer: Possibly, but probably not.
The number of total medals are unlikely to be in question. In Tokyo, the US had 113 medals, compared to 89 for China. In 2016, the margin was even greater – 121 to 70Even when China hosted in 2008, the US had more medals overall (112 to 100). But China had more gold medals than the US in 2008 (48-36), and after a poor year in 2016 – China had 26 gold medals, Britain 27 and the US 46 – China recovered in 2021 with 38 gold medals to the US’s 39.
If we were to build trend lines based on the last two Summer Olympics, China would overtake the US in Paris. Right?
Let’s see small deeper.
After entering the results and rankings from the past three years and other historical data, the projection is as follows:
Gold medals: US 48.28, China 39.78
Total number of medals: US 126.10, China 93.38
If we round those numbers to actual predictions for each event, so that we don’t have to decide who gets 28% of a gold medal, but still based on the same calculations, the differences become:
Gold medals: US 42, China 29
Total number of medals: US 123, China 92
How can that be? Essentially, China has less upside. They are nearly perfect in diving and table tennis, to the point where they simply can’t improve much – there are few gold medals for Chinese athletes to win in those events. The US, on the other hand, has many returning silver and bronze medalists with a chance to upgrade to gold.
Over the past three years, American athletes have proven themselves to be contenders. In an unofficial count, the U.S. has 57 athletes or teams going to Paris who are either current world champions or ranked No. 1 in their events; China has 48.
That being said, Gracenote Virtual Medal Table has similar medal counts (USA 123-87 China), but the battle for the gold medal is much tighter (USA 37-36 China, with Great Britain, France and Australia in third, fourth and fifth place respectively).
How could That are?
The flip side of a bigger advantage is that Team USA’s medals are not a sure thing. The US has the potential to win as many as 50 gold medals, but a few mistakes here and there could put them in the 30s, which is within China’s reach.
And given the structure of the Paris schedule, China could get an early lead. But the U.S. should be able to steal the final seven days of the Games.
This is how the battle for Olympic supremacy will unfold:
Swimming (first week): The U.S. may never have had a more talented roster in the pool. Not only do familiar names like Katie Ledecky and Caeleb Dressel return, but so do several other multi-medalists in Tokyo — Bobby Finke, Ryan Murphy, Regan Smith and Lilly King. But the Americans will be looking to match or improve on their stunning 11 gold medals and 30 total in Tokyo, a tough task against stiffer competition from Australia, Europe, Canada — and China. Li Bingjie, Xu Jiayu, Qin Haiyang, Zhang Yufei and freestyle phenom Pan Zhanle will almost certainly ensure that China improves on the team’s six-medal haul in 2021 and has a good chance of surpassing its three-gold total in Tokyo.
Gymnastics (first week): China’s Zhang Boheng is the men’s all-around favorite and could leave the mat with multiple medals under her belt. But the U.S. put in a solid performance in Tokyo, even with Simone Biles struggling. The GOAT is back and perhaps better than ever, and Tokyo all-around champion Sunisa Lee and floor exercise gold medalist Jade Carey also return. The men’s team, which has lagged behind in recent Games, has 20-year-old sensation Fred Richards and several Olympic veterans competing. China could improve on its three-gold total from 2021, but the U.S. will likely improve on its two-gold total from Tokyo.
Other events in the first week: China excels in shooting and could match their four gold medal haul (11 total) in Tokyo, while the U.S. will struggle to match their haul of three gold medals (six total). China will also be looking to gain honors in diving, which is spread throughout the Olympic schedule. The U.S. rowers will be eager to add to the medal count after a surprising shutout in Tokyo.
Athletics/track sports (second week): A few proven winners, including Athing Mu and Keni Harrison, failed to make the team at the crucible of the U.S. Olympic Trials. But this team should only get better after Tokyo, where the U.S. won seven gold medals (26 total). Noah Lyles and Sha’Carri Richardson have garnered most of the attention for their performances since Tokyo, but the U.S. returns many athletes who won silver or gold last time around — including Grant Holloway (110m hurdles), Rai Benjamin (400m hurdles), Chris Nilsen (pole vault), Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (400m hurdles), Katie Moon (pole vault), Raven Saunders (shot put) and Valarie Allman (discus). And the 1-2 push of Tokyo gold medalist Ryan Crouser and silver medalist Joe Kovacs makes the men’s shot put one of the surest bets of the Games outside of a Chinese diver or table tennis player. If the US loses one of these medals, it probably won’t be at the expense of Chinese athletes, who won two gold medals in Tokyo but may leave Paris without a medal.
Other events in the second week: The U.S. should clean up in women’s team sports – basketball, water polo and both types of volleyball. The rebuilt women’s soccer team can’t be written off either. The U.S. also returns to the wrestling mat with high expectations. Its roster has seen some shakeups since winning three golds (nine medals) in Tokyo, but it has breakout stars like Amit Elor and Aaron Brooks who join reliable contenders like Kyle Dake, Kyle Snyder, Sarah Hildebrandt and Helen Maroulis. American skateboarders could win the men’s park event and grab another medal in the women’s park. The Chinese team has no intention of matching that.
BEST BETS FOR USA TO WIN (Gold Medals Only)
Athletics: Men’s 110m hurdles
Athletics: Men’s 200m
Athletics: women’s shot put
Swimming: Women’s 200m medley
Athletics: Men’s 100m
BMX Bikes: Women’s Park
Swimming: Men’s 100m Backstroke
Breaking: Men (New Event)
Skateboarding: man park
Gymnastics: women’s team
BEST BETS FOR US REPLAY
Athletics: men’s shot put
Basketball: women
Swimming: Women’s 1500m Freestyle
Athletics: Women’s 400m hurdles
Swimming: Women’s 800m Freestyle
Athletics: Women’s Pole Vault
Surfing: women
Athletics: Men’s 4x400m relay
Gymnastics: all-round women
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Water polo: women
LEAST LIKELY TO BE REPEATED BY US
Taekwondo: women 57kg
Shooting: 10m air rifle men
Fencing: women’s foil
Shooting: women’s skeet
Athletics: Women’s 800m
Swimming: Men’s 100m Freestyle
Golf: women
Canoe sprint: 200m individual canoe for women
BEST BETS FOR CHINESE WINS (Gold Medals Only)
Diving: Men’s Synchronized Platform
Trampoline: men
Table tennis: mixed doubles
Artistic swimming: team
Gymnastics: men’s team
Shooting: 25m rapid fire pistol for men
BEST BETS FOR CHINESE REPLAY
Table tennis: women’s team
Diving: Women’s Synchronized Platform
Table tennis: men’s team
Diving: Men’s Synchronized Platform
Diving: women’s platform
Weightlifting: Men 61 kg
Diving: platform for men
Canoe sprint: 500m double canoe for women
Diving: Women’s Synchronized Platform
Table tennis: women’s singles
LEAST LIKELY CHINESE REPETITION
Weightlifting: Men 67 kg (discontinued)
Weightlifting: Men 81 kg (discontinued)
Weightlifting: Women 87 kg (discontinued)
Athletics: women’s javelin throw
Sailing: Windsurfing for Women
Shooting: 50m three-position rifle men
Swimming: Women’s 200m Butterfly
Gymnastics: Women’s Balance Beam
Badminton: women’s singles
Fencing: women’s epee