A trove of purported US intelligence documents posted online show that as many as 354,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war in Ukraine, and the conflict could continue well beyond 2023.
If authentic, the documents – which look like secret US assessments of the war and espionage against allies – offer a rare insight into Washington’s view of one of Europe’s deadliest conflicts since World War II.
The Reuters news agency has not been able to independently verify the documents. Some countries, including Russia and Ukraine, have questioned their veracity, while US officials have said some files appear to have been altered.
A February 23, 2023 assessment entitled “Struggle for Donbas Region Likely Heading for a 2023 Stalemate” said Russia is unlikely to be able to take that part of eastern Ukraine.
“Russia’s protracted campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading for a stalemate, thwarting Moscow’s goal of conquering the entire region by 2023,” the assessment read above a classified map of Russian positions.
“These tactics have reduced Russian forces and ammunition supplies to levels that, barring an unforeseen recovery, could deplete Russian units and frustrate Moscow’s war goals, resulting in a protracted post-2023 war.”
The Russian Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has said it does not know if the documents are genuine and that they may be an attempt to sow discord.
According to an assessment in the leaks purportedly collected by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Russia suffered a total of 189,500 to 223,000 casualties, including 35,500 to 43,000 killed and 154,000 to 180,000 wounded.
Ukraine has suffered a total of 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, including 15,500 to 17,500 killed in action and 109,000 to 113,500 wounded in combat, according to the document entitled “Russia/Ukraine – Assessed Combat Sustainability and Attrition”.
The figures are about 10 times larger than the figures of all public casualties published by Moscow or Kiev.
Neither side provides current data on military losses.
US wary of provoking China
In a US document posted on Russian Telegram channels, the casualty numbers were crudely altered to reduce the number of Russian casualties and increase the number of Ukrainian casualties. Reuters has seen two versions of the same document, one of which has been significantly altered.
“RUS continues to fall behind stated targets for the replenishment of equipment and personnel to support operations in Ukraine,” the Defense Intelligence Agency’s purported assessment read, highlighting significant gaps in information.
The casualty document featured emblems of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Both Russia and Ukraine were rated as “moderate” combat durability, meaning that both could likely continue to fight for some time.
The documents showed that while Russia was generally numerically superior in some areas, Ukraine had more tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) in theater than Russia.
According to the Defense Intelligence Agency’s analysis in the document leak, Russia has lost 2,048 tanks and 3,900 APCs, while Ukraine has lost 468 tanks and 1,020 APCs. Ukraine fielded 802 tanks and 3,498 APCs, while Russia has 419 tanks and 2,928 APCs in theater.
Russia had superiority in fighter jets and air defense, according to the casualties document. Reuters was unable to verify the figures, which contradict Russian figures on the destruction of Ukrainian equipment.
The leaked documents also suggested concerns in Washington about Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia — and possibly even Moscow — because of the impact such attacks could have on China’s position.
“China would respond more forcefully and most likely increase the scale and scope of the material it is willing to provide to Russia if Ukrainian strikes hit a location of high strategic value or appear to target senior Russian leaders,” said what appeared to be a collection of American Intelligence Reviews.
Reuters reviewed more than 50 of the documents, labeled “Secret” and “Top Secret,” which first appeared on social media sites in March. They are reportedly revealing details of Ukrainian military vulnerabilities and information about allies including Israel, South Korea and Turkey.