Ukraine now has more tanks available than Russia in a dramatic reversal of battlefield advantage, according to the latest data.
Kiev has received hundreds of heavy weapons from its Western allies in recent months. Meanwhile, Moscow has seen thousands of its tanks destroyed or captured by Ukraine since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion 16 months ago.
As a result, an analysis of the latest data on losses and gains by Bloomberg suggests that Ukraine now has more tanks at its disposal than Russia.
Citing tracking databases, the publication said that while the number of Russian tanks has dropped to about 1,400, Ukraine has seen an increase to 1,500 – tipping the scales in Kiev’s favor when it comes to heavy armor on the battlefield.
The gap between the two armies is also narrowing when it comes to other hardware, Bloomberg reports, including heavy guns and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
Ukraine now has more tanks available than Russia in a dramatic reversal of battlefield advantage, according to the latest data. Pictured: A Ukrainian soldier walks next to a destroyed Russian tank in the recently recaptured village of Novodarivka, July 2
The publication cited a number of different sources, including the German-based Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker, the military blog Oryx and the IISS, or International Institute for Strategic Studies.
According to Oryx, which only tracks losses it can confirm through visual confirmation (videos and photos posted online), Russia has destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured 2,082 of its tanks since February 2022.
Figures at the time said Moscow started with 3,417 tanks at its disposal, suggesting it has about 1,400 tanks left.
Ukraine, meanwhile, entered the war with 987 tanks, data shows, and has taken delivery of 471 new tanks since the start of the war, including the German Leopard 2 tanks, British Challenger 2 tanks and American M1 Abrams tanks.
Another 286 are on their way to Kiev.
Taking into account the Russian tanks captured by the Ukrainian forces, the country would now have about 1,500 tanks.
Moscow’s starting figure is according to Military Balance, an annual assessment of world arsenals published by the London-based think tank IISS.
The Oryx Blogmeanwhile goes into great detail about Russia’s losses and uses visual confirmation when counting them on its website.
The blog lists equipment lost by Russia down to the individual model, matching each destroyed piece of hardware it mentions with a photo or video confirming the loss.
This, Oryx explains, gives a minimum (or conservative) figure of Moscow’s losses.
Bloomberg says there are still uncertainties around such numbers.
Both countries, especially Ukraine, are closely monitoring the number of real losses they have suffered, with some suspecting that neither side knows the true number.
There is also no reliable record of Russian replacement tanks that Moscow produced or pulled out of storage to desperately bolster its ailing armies.
As for Ukraine, analysts believe the country got through the first year of the brutal conflict with about the same number of tanks as at the start.
While it is likely that Ukraine also suffered heavy losses, it made up for them with deliveries of new tanks and the seizure of Russian hardware.
Kiev has received hundreds of heavy weapons from its Western allies since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion 16 months ago (Leopard 2 tanks arrive in Ukraine in the photo). Meanwhile, Moscow has seen thousands of its tanks destroyed or captured
An analysis of the latest data on losses and gains by Bloomberg suggests that Ukraine now has more tanks at its disposal than Russia. In the photo: a destroyed Russian tank in Storozheve
In two other categories – heavy guns and MLRS – Russia still has a lead.
However, the gap has also closed, data reported by Bloomberg suggests.
Russia started the war with 2,300 heavy guns, but now has 1,900. Ukraine started with 773 and now has 1,100.
A similar trend has been observed in MLRS, with Russia’s figure falling from a pre-war stock of 1,100 to 841 today. Ukraine has grown from 354 to 427.
However, it is likely that Ukraine will take more losses in the coming weeks and months as it continues its counter-offensive.
Ukrainian forces are currently conducting multiple operations in the south and east of the country, with the aim of pushing back Russian forces.
A senior security official said on Tuesday that the operation has been “particularly fruitful” in recent days and that Ukrainian troops are fulfilling their most important tasks.
However, President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that things are moving slower than he would have liked as Ukraine must navigate minefields laid by Russia.
“I wanted our counter-offensive to take place much sooner, because everyone understood that if the counter-offensive takes place later, more of our territory will be mined,” Zelensky said in an appearance on CNN. “We are giving our enemy time and opportunity to place more mines and prepare their lines of defense.”
Speaking to Bloomberg, Yohann Michel — a land warfare specialist at the IISS — said Ukraine’s tank advantage wouldn’t necessarily be the deciding factor.
Citing tracking databases, Bloomberg said that while the number of Russian tanks has fallen to about 1,400, Ukraine has seen an increase to 1,500 – tipping the scales in Kiev’s favor when it comes to heavy armor on the battlefield
“Even if the situation is more equal in numbers, that’s not how it works,” he told the publication. “The problem is that Ukraine needs to regain territory now, so it’s on the offensive against a well-prepared defense and for that you need a strong advantage.”
There are also concerns that delays in further supplies from the West to Kiev will lead to increased losses among Ukrainian forces in the counter-offensive.
In addition, any attacking force is likely to suffer greater losses, especially against an enemy dug in with trenches and minefields as Russia has.
“Until the Ukrainians have a clear advantage,” Michel told Bloomberg, “the cost of moving forward will be very high.