Istanbul, Turkey – As Turks prepare to go to the polls for a presidential runoff, millions of Syrian refugees in the country watch anxiously, unsure of how the outcome might shape their future.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu will face each other in the second round of voting on Sunday, after neither won a majority in the first on May 14. Erdogan won 49.5 percent and Kilicdaroglu 44.9 percent.
Immigration was a central issue in the elections. During the campaign, several opposition politicians pledged to deport refugees and migrants, while the government has emphasized its plans to continue what it calls “voluntary” repatriation of Syrians.
According to the United Nations, Turkey has hosted 3.7 million refugees, more than any other country in the world. In the year leading up to the polls, pressure mounted on refugees and migrants, especially Syrians, amid an economic crisis that saw skyrocketing inflation, a plummeting lira and a deepening cost of living.
Due to the situation, many Syrians in Turkey are very concerned about their future in the country.
“I don’t know what will happen after the election,” said 23-year-old Habib, whose name has been changed to protect his identity.
“She [politicians] say they want to send all Syrians back. We all suffer from fear during this period,” says the man who was displaced eight years ago by the war in Syria and currently resides in Istanbul.
Rising nationalism
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, the vast majority of refugees in Turkey — 3.6 million — are Syrians living under “temporary protection status.” About 200,000 Syrians have been granted Turkish citizenship since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011, according to government figures.
While Turkey initially welcomed the refugees, provided shelter and access to education with billions of euros in funding from the European Union, anti-refugee sentiment has grown in recent years and refugees have become scapegoats for Turkey’s economic problems, occasionally leading to violence. has lead.
Muhammad Siddik Yasar, who heads the Tarlabaşı Solidarity Association, a solidarity group for refugees in Istanbul, said anti-refugee sentiment has sharpened in the run-up to the elections.
“Being a refugee means you are here today but have no guarantee for tomorrow,” he told Al Jazeera.
“People ask us what we should do. They fear that racism will increase after the elections. I have been working with refugees for many years and I have never seen anything like it this year,” he said.
Rising anti-refugee sentiment manifested itself at the polls in the first round of the election as nationalists put in a strong performance, most notably far-right nationalist presidential candidate Sinan Ogan, who unexpectedly won 5.2 percent of the vote.
Ogan ran for the ATA (Ancestral) Alliance, led by the anti-immigrant, ultra-nationalist Victory Party. He has been supporting Erdogan ever since.
“Ogan is an interesting and important phenomenon in Turkish politics,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Turkish research program.
“He just rallied on one issue, anti-refugee, anti-immigrant platform. With no media access, no rallies and basically no money, he got 5 percent,” Cagaptay said.
Since the first round, Kilicdaroglu, who is backed by a broad coalition of opposition parties, has redoubled its stance on deportations.
“Erdogan, you have not protected the borders and honor of our country,” he said last week. “As soon as I come to power, I will send all refugees home.”
‘Voluntary repatriations’
Faced with opposition attacks on immigration, the government has continued talks with Damascus, suggesting a warming of ties.
This month, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Syria and Iran met in Moscow as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to bring about rapprochement between the Turkish and Syrian governments after years of hostility over the war in Syria and multiple Turkish military operations in Northern Syria.
Al-Assad, for its part, has demanded that Turkey withdraw from areas under its control in northwestern Syria.
The talks were held as several regional leaders sought to normalize ties with al-Assad. In mid-May, Syria was readmitted to the Arab League after membership was suspended for more than a decade.
Kilicdaroglu has said he intends to re-establish ties with al-Assad, while Erdogan has previously said he could meet al-Assad for talks.
In addition to moving toward a possible rapprochement, Erdogan’s government has pushed ahead with its plan for refugees to “voluntarily resettle” in areas of Syria under Turkish security control.
“We have built more than 100,000 houses for it [refugees] in northern Syria,” Erdogan said this month at a gathering of youth from his Justice and Development Party (AK Party). “Gradually, Syrian refugees began to settle in these homes.”
“There is no time limit on this matter,” Erdogan added. “We do our best to support and assist them in this.”
According to the Turkish Interior Ministry, nearly 58,000 Syrians returned to their homeland between November 2021 and October last year.
In a 2022 report, Human Rights Watch documented hundreds of deportations from February to July last year, which the government said were voluntary departures.
Many Syrians are hesitant at the prospect of returning to their homeland as the war there continues. Habib said he fears being drafted into the army if he returns to Syria.
“If I get transferred to Bashar [al-Assad]”I would be in a very critical condition and my family would have no one to support them,” he said.
Salim Cevik, a researcher at the Center for Applied Turkey Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said there was “no easy and quick solution to Turkey’s migration problem”.
“There is no repatriation policy possible in the short term,” he said. “The more realistic policies would probably find ways to integrate them into Turkish society. But this is something that no politician should say in public.”