A slew of polls showing Donald Trump gaining ground or widening his lead over Kamala Harris has had a dramatic impact on his overall chances of winning November’s presidential election.
The former president has achieved his biggest lead yet in our DailyMail.com/JL Partners election model.
This shows that he now wins in 65.9 percent of the simulations when the algorithm goes through all possible combinations of data.
That’s a big jump from Friday, when the model was last run. He then won in 61.4 percent of the simulations.
With just two weeks to go until Election Day, this suggests time is running out for the vice president.
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Instead, momentum has shifted to Trump since the heady days of August, when the newly installed Democratic candidate surged ahead in the polls and raked in huge amounts of money following President Joe Biden’s shocking decision to step aside.
The new calculation reflects three new national polls showing Trump taking a lead over Harris, narrowing her longstanding lead over national averages.
Analysts believe Harris will need a decisive victory in the national voting tally to have any chance of prevailing in the swing states that will decide who gets the most Electoral College votes and wins the White House.
As things stand now, the model suggests that Trump will take the seven battlegrounds and take the Electoral College by 312 to 226.
But the figures come with a caveat. Harris is not out of the race.
With a win rate of 34 percent in the simulations, the battle remains tight, and the model comes to a final verdict that the election is “Trump leaning,” rather than something more decisive.
The prediction comes from collecting the latest polling data, along with election results from the past 80 years plus economic statistics.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at JL Partners, said the national polls’ move to Trump had made the biggest difference since last week.
‘Less than one percent of everything Democrat Victories come from losing the popular vote, which is why it is paramount that Harris wins the popular vote if she wants to win the Electoral College,” he wrote in his briefing Monday.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, but DailyMail.com/JL Partners’ election model suggests the former president has all the momentum with two weeks to go
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“The latest set of polls is starting to weaken the assumption that Harris would win the popular vote.”
As that probability decreases, he added, Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College increase.
“There is also a long-term trend of the national election gap between Harris and Trump narrowing. A month ago, Harris led Trump by about 3.5 points in the national polls, and she currently leads by about 1.5 points.
“The electoral fog is clearing and it appears to reveal a likely Trump victory.
Trump was in Asheville, North Carolina, on Monday to survey the storm damage
Harris campaigned with Republican Liz Cheney and tried to win over disaffected conservatives in Pennsylvania who were fed up with Trump
“We have yet to see the impact of Trump’s visit to McDonald’s this weekend. A visit that went very well with Trump…’
Trump spent the weekend in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, serving fries to McDonald’s customers and attending a Pittsburgh Steelers game.
On Monday, he flew to Asheville, North Carolina, to see the city ravaged by Hurricane Helene for himself.
Harris was in Philadelphia on Monday with Republican Liz Cheney, where he appealed to disaffected conservative voters.