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Following Donald Trump’s guilty verdict, former President still leads President Joe Biden by just one point in a hypothetical matchup in 2024. Voters are taking different approaches to how Trump’s hush money trial and Hunter Biden’s gun trial will affect their decision in November.
More than two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans polled in a new Emerson College survey say the trial of Biden’s son will have no impact on their right to vote this fall — while just 40 percent say Trump’s conviction will have no impact will have on the way they cast their votes. Still, more than a quarter (27 percent) say Trump’s guilty verdict on 34 crimes makes them more likely to vote for him as president. And 33 percent say it makes them less likely to support him.
On June 30, the jury in Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan convicted the former president on all counts he was accused of in connection with the falsification of business records for paying Stormy Daniels to keep their case quiet ahead of the 2016 presidential election. . Just days after the sentencing, the trial began on the three federal charges against Hunter Biden, 54, for lying about his drug addiction on a questionnaire form when purchasing a firearm in Delaware in 2018.
Trump’s sentencing is set for July 11, just days before he was set to become the Republican Party’s official presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Forty percent of voters say they believe Trump should receive prison time for his crimes, and 25 percent say he should pay a fine. The remaining 15 percent believe he should be given a probationary period.
It is unclear exactly what impact the conviction will have on Trump’s ability to campaign for president. If he is placed on probation, he could be restricted to campaigning at his Florida complex at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. The Emerson Poll was conducted nationwide on June 4 and 5 among 1,000 registered voters — both after Trump’s guilty verdict and Hunter’s trial, which started Monday.
Twelve percent of voters said the trial of the president’s son would make them support Biden’s reelection, while double (24 percent) said they would be less likely to vote for the incumbent president. In reality, the back-to-back trials underscore just how much of an impact the legal challenges facing both current and former presidents are having on the November election.
In June of last year, Emerson College polls showed Trump trailing Biden by a few percentage points — but a year later, the former president is ahead 46 to 45 percent.
Since October, the Republican candidate has trailed his Democratic competitor in the polls. The two are set for their first head-to-head debate on the 2024 elections on June 27, hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Georgia. Although another debate is scheduled for this fall, it is unclear whether Trump will be able to participate after his conviction.
A former Clinton political strategist claims the debate will be the moment for Biden, 81, to prove he has not deteriorated cognitively and deserves another four years in office.
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