Trump or Harris’ victory hinges on three states in the 2024 presidential election

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a neck-and-neck race as Election Day approaches on November 5.

Whoever enters the White House could shape the course of the country for a generation.

But while millions of voters will head to the polls on or before Election Day, the presidential election is expected to decide the outcome in only a handful of states.

The first presidential candidate to receive 270 electoral votes will become the next President of the United States.

There are seven states that could go either way, but depending on which candidate can capture the largest swing states, the path to victory will narrow significantly.

The swing state with the most electoral votes up for grabs is Pennsylvania. Win that state and the path to victory is easier for both candidates.

That’s why both candidates are campaigning aggressively in the states.

The other two states that will determine the presidential election and who wins the White House are Georgia and North Carolina.

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Harris’ path to the White House

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she would only need to win two or three more crucial states to become president.

But if she loses the Keystone State, her victory will be nearly impossible. Democrats haven’t won the White House without winning Pennsylvania since Harry Truman in 1948.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows the race in the state to be close, with Harris leading Trump by just one point.

The state flipped blue for President Biden in 2020 by just 80,000 votes, but the former president won the state in 2016.

If Trump wins the 2024 election, Harris will need to win at least four other states to clinch victory. That path must include at least one of the swing states with 16 electoral votes, meaning the race will go straight through North Carolina or Georgia.

Without one of those two Southern states, the vice president can’t make up for the loss in Pennsylvania, even if she wins Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The latest polls show that the races in Georgia and North Carolina are statistically tied.

The Real Clear Politics average shows Trump up just 0.1 percent in North Carolina. In Georgia, the poll average shows him up two points.

Trump won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, while losing Georgia to President Biden in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes.

Trump’s path to the White House

If Trump doesn’t win Pennsylvania, his path to the White House will also become much more difficult.

Even if Trump carries Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which are close, he still won’t get the 270 electoral votes he needs and can’t win the presidential election without Georgia or North Carolina.

And even if he wins both Southern swing states, he will still need to win at least two other swing states to offset a loss in Pennsylvania.

It’s no wonder that both Harris and Trump made frequent appearances in the Keystone State in the final stages of the campaign.

Pennsylvania also has the highest advertising spending of any state in the presidential race, with both Democrats and Republicans pouring tens of millions of dollars into TV, radio and digital ads in the state in the run-up to Election Day.

In the final two months of the campaign, Democrats will spend more than $75 million on advertising in Pennsylvania.

According to data from AdImpact, Republicans are pumping more than $60 million into the state.

In North Carolina and Georgia, Democrats are on track to outspend Republicans.

Democrats are expected to spend about $40 million, while Republicans will spend about $30 million.

In North Carolina, Democrats have more than $30 million in advertising reservations for the past two months, while Republicans have $20 million.