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Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in seven of the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. With just a single-digit lead, voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say that if the election were held today, they would cast their ballot for the former president over the incumbent, according to a new poll from The Hill/Emerson College.
The survey also shows that independent longshot candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plays a bigger spoiler for Biden than for Trump. North Carolina has the widest spread, showing Trump with a five percent lead, although this is still within the margin of error of 47 to 42 percent.
Trump is doing second best in Arizona, where he leads Biden by four points (44 percent to 48 percent). In Georgia, where Trump is facing criminal charges for subverting the 2020 election, the former president is at 47 percent, compared to Biden’s 44 percent, with the nine percent still undecided.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin produced the same results among voters in those swing states: 47 percent were for Trump, 45 percent for Biden and eight percent were unsure which they would prefer if the election were held today.
And in Michigan and Nevada, Trump is ahead by just one percentage point at 45 to 44 percent in both battleground states, where 11 percent of registered voters in both states say they still haven’t decided whether it was a head-to-head between the 45th and 20th centuries . and 46th president. As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. added to the mix, Biden’s chances of re-election in 2024 become slimmer.
Take Nevada, for example, where Trump drops from 45 percent to 42 percent when third-party candidates are also considered by respondents. But Biden fell from 44 percent to 37 percent – a three percent drop compared to seven percent for the current president. Eight percent of Nevada voters say they will vote for RFK Jr. in 2024. would vote and three percent is for other third-party candidates.
Another good example is Georgia, where Trump fell by only two percent when other candidates were weighed, but Biden’s chances fell by five percent when RFK Jr. transferred five percent support in total and ‘others’ took another three percent from the frontrunners. Kennedy ran as a Democrat earlier in the 2024 election cycle before changing strategy and instead launching a bid for the presidency on an independent ticket.
It’s a good sign for Trump to have a lead in swing states six months before the election, as these states ultimately determined the winner in 2016 and 2020, and will do the same in 2024, with what will likely be a razor-thin race beyond that . of the battle scenes. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The only swing state he didn’t get that year was Nevada.
However, just four years later, Trump lost to Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He still didn’t pick up Nevada, but still won in North Carolina. The former president claims widespread voter fraud and interference by Democrats led to his 2020 loss, insisting Biden’s victory was not legitimate. Trump is already saying that if he loses in 2024, it will be because of voter fraud.
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