Former President Donald Trump is the Republican candidate best placed to beat Joe Biden in the critical swing states of Arizona and Georgia, according to an exclusive poll from DailyMail.com/JL Partners, but Nikki Haley can beat the Democratic candidate in Wisconsin.
The results undermine one of the main arguments of Florida governors Ron DeSantis and Haley: that they are more electable than Trump.
In fact, our swing states survey shows that while Trump beats Biden by five points in Arizona, DeSantis can only tie and Haley loses by two points.
In Georgia, Trump beats Biden in a head-to-head matchup by two points, but DeSantis loses by six points and Haley loses by one.
Things are different in Wisconsin. There, Biden would beat Trump and DeSantis by four points if the 2024 election were held tomorrow, but would lose to Haley by one percentage point.
JL Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in each of three key swing states: Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. The results have a margin of error of 4.2 percent
With almost a year to go, Trump is ahead of Biden in national opinion polls. But state-by-state polls, especially in key battlegrounds, provide a clearer picture of the Electoral College outcome
All results have a margin of error of 4.2 percent but show Trump as Biden's strongest Republican challenger in at least two of the crucial battlegrounds.
“These are good results for the Trump campaign: Trump is best positioned to beat Biden in both Arizona and Georgia,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, which conducted the poll.
However, Haley can take heart from the results in Wisconsin. While DeSantis and Trump trail Biden, Haley Biden nearly pulls into a tie with the independents and therefore claims the state by a one-point margin overall.
“DeSantis is a bit disappointed with these results: he is failing to mobilize the Republican base to the extent that Trump is, while he is also failing to match Haley's performance among independents.”
Haley and DeSantis will battle it out on Wednesday in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, the scene of the fourth Republican debate.
They are competing for second place behind Trump.
Haley has gained momentum in recent weeks thanks to strong debate performances and major endorsements.
She has built on the idea that Trump is a divisive politician.
“We have to face the fact that Trump is the most hated politician in America,” she said during the first debate in Milwaukee. “We can't win a general election that way.”
Trump has a lead over Biden in Georgia (which the Democrat won by just 0.2 percentage points in 2020), but Haley and DeSantis fall short in our 2024 intentions poll
Haley and DeSantis clashed repeatedly last month at the third Republican debate in Miami, Florida, as they seek to position themselves as the best alternative to Trump
There is good news for Haley in Wisconsin. Our poll shows that if the election were held tomorrow, she would beat Biden in a head-to-head matchup, while DeSantis and Trump lose.
Last week she received the support of the influential Koch network, which has a deep war chest for conservative candidates.
“Nikki Haley, at the top of the ticket, would move the candidates up and down the ballot, winning key independent and moderate voters that Trump has no chance of winning,” the Americans for Prosperity Action group said.
To test that point, JL Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in three key swing states. They were asked who they could vote for in the general election that pitted Biden against Trump, DeSantis or Haley in head-to-head contests.
The poll results outline her strength and her weakness: Although Haley is doing better than other Republicans in winning over Democratic voters and independents, Trump's former UN ambassador is losing a potentially decisive group of Republicans in 2020.
Our flowcharts illustrate how that works. In Arizona, Trump won 48 percent of the vote in 2020, but as things stand, Haley would win only 36 percent of the vote (12 points less than the former president this time in a head-to-head with Biden).
Some lost voters say they simply wouldn't vote in 2024 if she were on the ballot.
However, Haley on the ballot is less of a push factor for Biden supporters than Trump. So Biden can only get 38 percent against her, but 43 percent against the more polarizing figure of Trump.
Things are different in Wisconsin. There she seems to win over enough graduates to defeat Biden.
In our poll, Haley loses members of the Trump base, but gains some direct Biden switchers and reduces turnout for the Democratic candidate. In Wisconsin, it could be enough to win
Four candidates will take the stage Wednesday for the fourth Republican debate in Tuscaloosa, Florida (from left): Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy
DeSantis has also tried to position himself as a Republican candidate who doesn't carry the kind of baggage that turns off independent voters. He can point to a landslide victory in Florida last year as proof he is a winner.
“Donald Trump is a very different man than he was in 2016,” DeSantis said last month during the third Republican debate in Miami, a day after disappointing election results for the Republican party.
“He said Republicans would get tired of winning. Well, we saw (Tuesday) night that I'm tired of Republicans losing. In Florida I showed how it should be done.'
The pair stepped up their attacks on each other this week as they prepared for the fourth debate.
DeSantis used a Newsmax TV interview to argue that Haley was not a true conservative, while her spokesperson hit back, saying he lied in an attempt to boost a failing campaign.