Former President Donald Trump still holds a lead over President Joe Biden in two key swing states — Nevada and Arizona — but a national poll conducted after the Republican’s conviction shows the presidential race is tightening.
Fox News has released new polls On Thursday, Trump rose five points among registered voters in Arizona — 51 percent to Biden’s 46 percent.
In nearby Nevada, Trump also led Biden by 5 points — 50 percent to the Democrat’s 45 percent.
Polls have shown Trump with a lead over Biden in Arizona for more than a yearwhile Trump has been for Biden in Nevada since November, according to Real Clear Politics polling averages — and the ruling didn’t appear to change the numbers.
In the two swing states, voters’ opinions on hush money were virtually identical.
Former President Donald Trump (left) still holds a lead over President Joe Biden (right) in two key swing states — Nevada and Arizona — but a national poll conducted after the Republican’s conviction shows the presidential race is tightening
Pollsters asked just two questions about the process — whether voters thought it was fair and how much they cared about it — the latter to indicate whether it would change people’s votes.
In Arizona, 63 percent said the hush money lawsuit did not matter, while only about a third, 36 percent, said it did.
Furthermore, only 25 percent said it mattered ‘a lot’ to them.
While this could be enough to swing things back to Biden, the overall numbers don’t yet reflect that.
In Nevada, 65 percent said the hush money lawsuit did not matter, while 35 percent said it did.
In both states, 51 percent said they believed Trump received a fair trial, while 46 percent said the trial in Manhattan was unfair.
The New York Times Wednesday had a clearer picture of whether any damage was done to Trump by the guilty verdict when 2,000 voters were contacted again after being polled in April and May.
When The New York Times and Siena College recontacted 2,000 voters from their spring survey, pollsters found that former President Donald Trump’s three-point national lead had shrunk to just 1 percent after being found guilty.
The verdict has changed some of these people’s minds.
Originally, the New York Times/Siena College surveys found that 48 percent of these voters supported Trump, while 45 percent supported Biden.
But after Trump was found guilty in all 34 courts of falsifying company records related to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, pollsters found that 47 percent supported Trump, while 46 percent supported Biden.
Trump’s three-point lead fell to just 1 percent nationally.
A Times/Siena College poll showed Trump retaining 93 percent of those who said they would support him in the previous survey.
But turning away 7 percent of your voters could make a difference in a tight race.
Of that 7 percent, 3 percent said they would support Biden now, while the remaining 4 percent said they have not yet decided who they will vote for in the fall.
Those who turned away from Trump were young, non-white, unengaged and Democratic-leaning voters — essentially non-traditional Republican voters who are now undecided.
About a quarter of 2020 Biden voters who told Times pollsters they would support Trump this time have now returned to the fold, the new survey found.
In addition, so-called “double haters” – voters who dislike both the Republican and Democratic candidates – were more likely to be released on bail.
Since last week’s verdict, Trump has lost about a fifth of the “double haters” who previously said they would hold their noses and support him in the fall.