The unexpected, under-the-radar Senate race in Michigan that could determine control of the chamber
LANSING, MI — Elissa Slotkin had less than half an hour to factor in a retirement announcement that would reshape Michigan’s political landscape. The state’s senior senator and the third-ranking Democrat in the House, Debbie Stabenow, was about to reveal that she would retire in 2024.
Rep. Slotkin, a Democratic congresswoman from Holly, soon met with her team to mobilize for a run for a U.S. Senate seat that Democrats did not expect would be difficult to defend in the closely divided chamber. Slotkin, a powerful fundraiser who had won in one of the country’s most contentious House districts, quickly emerged as the Democratic Party establishment’s top choice and began setting a torrid pace for fundraising.
It took longer for Republicans in Michigan to find their frontrunner. Beset by unrest between pro-Trump Republicans and the state’s old guard, they eventually lured former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers out of retirement to compete for the unexpected opening. Former President Donald Trump’s support gave Rogers a clear chance to win his party’s primary without drowning in the intraparty conflict that has plagued Michigan’s Republican Party in recent years.
Both Slotkin and Rogers have opponents in the Aug. 6 primary, but they also have advantages that make a second showdown in November in a key swing state likely. With Trump and President Joe Biden set to battle it out for the state’s vital fifteen electoral votes at the top of the ticket, the unexpected fight for Michigan’s open Senate seat could say a lot about what the winner faces will receive once he is sworn in. a second term.
“This race is going down to the wire,” said former Michigan Republican Rep. Fred Upton. “These will be two heavyweights, in a positive sense. They really know the problems and will think about them together.”
Hill Harper, an actor known for his roles in “CSI: NY” and “The Good Doctor,” and businessman Nasser Beydoun will challenge Slotkin for the Democratic nomination. Slotkin has maintained a more than $8 million cash reserve advantage over both as of late March, along with the support of several prominent Democrats.
National Republicans had hoped Rogers would have an equally easy path to his party’s nomination. But the campaigns of former U.S. Reps. Justin Amash and Peter Meijer, who ended his bid last week, and businessman Sandy Pensler, made his task a little more complicated.
Rogers’ main advantage is Trump’s support, which came in February and was opposed by some hardline Republicans because of Rogers’ past criticism of Trump. Rogers took the stage with Trump at a campaign event in Michigan on Wednesday, further aligning himself with a former president he had criticized after the Trump administration tried to cast doubt on the results of the 2020 election when he called their actions compared to ‘Third World dictatorships’. ”
Trump said Wednesday that Rogers “will be a warrior in the United States Senate, and more importantly, he will simply be a winner.”
Trump’s support has proven decisive in Michigan’s Republican nominations of late, but questions remain about whether it will hurt or help the general election.
It’s a red line for voters like Tom Patton, a longtime Lansing resident who has been represented in Congress by both Rogers and Slotkin and even volunteered for Rogers’ first Senate campaign.
“I really liked Mike Rogers then and in some ways I still do. He is a serious person and has great references. But his support for Trump completely turned me off,” said Patton, who voted for Nikki Haley in the February primary. “You can’t be for someone like Trump who doesn’t accept the outcome of a fairly conducted election.”
The endorsement also hasn’t helped Rogers’ fundraising. In the first quarter of 2024, he raised just over $1 million – just a quarter of Slotkin’s haul during the same period.
‘We are going to run a better campaign. We don’t have to match dollar to dollar,” Rogers said. “All we need to do is have enough money to make sure people understand the differences.”
The race is expected to take on similar dimensions to the presidential campaign, with Slotkin advocating for reproductive rights and Rogers criticizing Biden on border security and inflation. It could also include a strong bipartisan element on the war in the Middle East, with Rogers drawing on his foreign policy credentials and looking for ways to criticize Slotkin and Biden on an issue that Democrats divide.
Wayne County, which includes Detroit and has the largest Democratic voting base in the state, has become the epicenter of opposition to Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, and some have said they would sit out the election.
Slotkin, who is Jewish and has extensive foreign policy experience as a former CIA analyst and Defense Department official, has sometimes been criticized for not being tougher on Israel.
“There have been few issues that have kept me more awake than this issue. There are few issues more controversial in my own district, in my own state,” Slotkin said. “But the job of a leader is to separate themselves from how they feel personally and do what is best for the people they represent.”
Support from Arab Americans could be crucial to Slotkin’s chances in November, but her relationship with at least one of that community’s leaders remains problematic. Shortly before announcing her Senate campaign in early 2023, Slotkin met with Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, the top elected official in one of the only Muslim-majority cities in the country. The conversation soured when Hammoud took umbrage at the implication that the community would not support Slotkin because of her Jewish heritage, which has not been a deterrent to other Jewish candidates in the past.
Slotkin’s campaign declined to comment on the exchange, but the two have not spoken since.
Slotkin voted earlier this month for a package that sent more aid to Israel, but said in an interview that Israel should allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza and explain its military strategy going forward.
“If that’s not the case, I’m willing to have a conversation about putting conditions on offensive aid, not defensive ones,” she said.
It seems unlikely that opposition to Slotkin in the community will translate into support for Rogers. He has remained staunchly pro-Israel, saying the country is justified in its actions in Gaza because “they have the right to defend themselves and they have the right to go and get those hostages.”
Despite unrest within the Democratic base, the party has not lost a Senate race since 1994 and exceeded expectations in recent Michigan elections.
In 2022, Democrats gained full control of Michigan’s state government for the first time in decades, thanks in part to a ballot initiative that enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution. Slotkin says abortion rights are still a winning issue in what could be the country’s ultimate swing state.
“What we need now in 2024 is at least a 10-year plan to regain federal abortion rights,” she said at an April 24 campaign event. “I’m so done waiting for the next shoe to drop. And part of the reason I want to be your next senator is because we need a new generation to think about our plans, our strategy.”
Rogers rejects the idea that abortion rights are still up for a vote in Michigan. He said he would not vote for a national abortion ban if it came up during his time in the Senate, although he did vote for a 20-week abortion ban while in the House of Representatives.
“I am a states rights man. I am not going back to Washington DC to undo what the people of Michigan decided to do,” Rogers said.
Republicans are welcoming Rogers as a moderate, sensible voice who has a legitimate chance to seize the unexpected opportunity that presented itself with Stabenow’s retirement, in a state where they haven’t won much lately. Democrats, meanwhile, believe Slotkin could emerge as a leading voice for the next generation of party leaders.
That makes for an intriguing matchup that no one saw coming.
“The Senate is at stake,” said Jason Roe, a Republican strategist in Michigan. “And Rogers and Slotkin could be a clash of the titans.”
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Associated Press writer Michelle L. Price contributed to this report from Freeland, Michigan.