Swing state Wisconsin could determine control of the Senate as the crucial race becomes a toss-up

An incumbent Democratic senator is shockingly facing headwinds after months of leading the polls in a swing state race that is now crucial for control of the Senate.

A new study of the Cook Political Report Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race shifted from a “lean Democrat” to a “toss-up” on Tuesday, with four weeks until Election Day.

The analysis shows Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., with a two-point lead over Republican businessman Eric Hovde, indicating that the incumbent president has lost significant ground in recent weeks.

But her lead is well within the study’s margin of error, meaning the race really could go either way.

And because Republicans only need to win one Senate seat in the battleground states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio or Pennsylvania, this tightening of the race only increases their chances of taking control of the House in November.

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Yet Baldwin has reliably outperformed Hovde throughout the campaign cycle.

Baldwin has at all times maintained a lead of at least 3.5 points over Hovde, with some polls even showing her close to eight points, the RealClearPolitics Survey average is shown.

For example, a Marquette University survey in late September showed Baldwin leading Hovde 53 percent to 46 percent, a seven-point lead for the Democrat.

A spokesperson for her campaign told DailyMail.com that she is not concerned about her lead being erased.

“This race was always going to be a toss-up, which is why Tammy Baldwin works every day to unite Wisconsinites of all stripes and win,” the spokesperson said.

“Next month, voters will reject the insults, lies and extreme policy positions of California bank owner Eric Hovde and send Tammy Baldwin to the U.S. Senate to continue fighting for them.”

But whether voters in the state will reject Republicans remains to be seen.

Currently, the Senate is divided between 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats and Independents who vote with the liberal flank.

The Senate races currently considered the closest are in Montana, where incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester is trailing businessman Tim Sheehy.

In Arizona, where former gubernatorial candidate and conservative firebrand Kari Lake is running against Democrat Ruben Gallego, a veteran of the Iraq War.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, faces a tough fight with Republican Bernie Moreno.

Pennsylvania, where former gubernatorial candidate Dave McCormick has a chance against veteran Democrat Sen. Bob Casey.

And finally, Wisconsin, where Baldwin’s reelection prospects were safely headed his way until recently.

Should Republicans win either of these competitions, it would all but ensure that the Republican Party would gain control of the Senate in 2025.

The state has been at the center of a contentious battle between Republicans and Democrats for years, as it is one of the most politically divided states in America.

Voters there sided with President Joe Biden in 2020 by a narrow margin.

In fact, the race was so close that it was decided by about 20,000 votes in the state.

In the past three decades, only one Republican has won a Senate seat in Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., who has been in office since 2011.

Johnson won re-election in 2022 by about 27,000 votes, clinching a victory with a one-point lead over his challenger.

Possibly deciding that the state needed a boost of Republican enthusiasm, the Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee in July.

Donald Trump and his vice presidential Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, have also made multiple stops in the state.

Vice President Kamala Harris has also chosen to campaign there.

Just last week, she visited Ripon, Wisconsin — considered the birthplace of the Republican Party — to campaign alongside former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.

At Thursday’s event, the former Wyoming lawmaker endorsed the Democratic candidate who appeared next to her and delivered remarks.