Poll: Biden would beat Trump in rematch if convicted before election
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Donald Trump trails by just two points in a hypothetical 2024 rematch with President Joe Biden — but his chances drop by 4 percent if he is convicted before Election Day. Most investigations show tension between Trump and Biden, but the latest offers a glimpse of what could happen if Trump is convicted in one of the four sets of charges against him.
The latest WPA Intelligence poll shows Biden beating Trump regardless of whether he is convicted or not, but the ex-president has a better chance of a second term if he doesn’t stay behind bars. In a post-conviction vote, Trump would lose 39 to 45 percent to Biden, the survey shows. But if they both get back on the ballot and there is no conviction, the gap will narrow by 4 percent, giving Trump 41 percent, compared to Biden’s 43 percent.
Even Republican support sees a small drop of 5 percent if Trump is convicted before he goes to the polls next year. At least 6 percent of Republican voters say they would not vote for the former president if he is convicted.
However, a whopping 81 percent of Republicans say a conviction doesn’t matter to them, and they would still vote for Trump — compared to the 86 percent who would vote for him as long as he remained conviction-free.
The first set of charges against Trump were filed earlier this year in connection with the alleged “hush money” payment he paid to Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. A few months later, he was charged with withholding classified documents after his had left office.
More recently, Trump was charged in two separate cases for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results – the first in Washington, DC and the second in Fulton County, Georgia. Nearly two-thirds of voters — 63 percent — agree with the charges against Trump in Georgia, according to the poll shared exclusively with the New York Post.
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