Political betting sites favor a Republican House and Senate as the most likely scenario

Political gambling sites are now favoring Republicans to gain control of the Senate and House in the US midterm elections, as voters go to the polls to cast their votes.

No US state legally offers betting on election results, so most of the action comes from online gambling markets abroad.

British bookmaker William Hill on Tuesday morning, the odds of Republicans winning a majority in both the House and Senate on 4/11 gave an implied probability of 73 percent.

The probability of a divided Congress, with Republicans leading the House and Democrats leading the Senate, was listed at 9/4 for an implied chance of 31 percent.

In the House race alone, William Hill named the GOP as a heavy favorite with a 1/25 chance of taking control of the room, a 96 percent implied chance.

Predict itthe New Zealand-based site similar to a futures exchange, where participants buy “stocks” from candidates, listed the odds of GOP scrutiny from the Senate at 74 percent on Tuesday morning.

It’s a change from the summer when it was believed Democrats were more likely to retain control of the Senate.

Overall, Democrats’ momentum has largely leveled off since the summer, with voters increasingly focusing on Republican issues such as the economy, inflation and crime, at the expense of Democrats’ agenda items, including Roe and guns, according to recent polls. . Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, said in a recent note, according to: Market overview.

The Democrats feared that their hold on the House would wane and their hold on the Senate—once considered more secure—would be loosened.

The party’s incumbent governors in places like Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada are also looking at serious Republican challengers.

Returning to the White House Monday night after his last campaign event, President Joe Biden said he thought Democrats would keep the Senate but acknowledged that “the House is tougher.”

The GOP was optimistic about its outlook, betting that messages focused on the economy, gas prices and crime will resonate with voters at a time of rising inflation and mounting violence.

Ultimately, they are convinced that the outrage stemming from the Supreme Court’s decision to abolish a woman’s constitutional right to abortion has faded and that midterm exams have become a more traditional assessment of the president’s performance.

“It will be a referendum on the incompetence of this administration,” Minnesota Republican Representative Tom Emmer, who leads the GOP’s efforts to retake the House, said of the election.

With polls open in most of the country, no major problems with early voting were reported, although there were hiccups typical of most election days.

Tabulators weren’t working in a New Jersey county — instead, they may have had to be counted by hand — and some Pennsylvania polling stations were delayed opening because workers were running late.