Northern Ireland terror threat is raised from ‘substantial’ to ‘severe’

The threat level for terrorism in Northern Ireland has been raised to ‘severe’, meaning an attack is deemed highly likely.

MI5 lifted its risk rating from ‘serious’ after police were targeted by groups seeking ‘politically motivated violence’.

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris revealed the shift in a statement to MPs – although he stressed that the decision is not being made by ministers.

The news comes ahead of a series of events marking the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement – with US President Joe Biden due to visit in the middle of next month.

Sectarian tensions have been rising for some time, with the most high-profile incident being the attempted murder of Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell last month in Omagh.

The situation threatens to snowball against the background of the row over post-Brexit rules. The DUP has refused to participate in power-sharing in protest of the Protocol – with Rishi Sunak’s new Windsor Framework package having so far failed to bring them back to Stormont.

The threat level to the rest of the UK remains at ‘substantial’, meaning an attack is considered ‘likely’.

Northern Ireland’s level was lowered to substantial a year ago – the first time since 2010.

Mr Heaton-Harris said the threat level assessment “takes into account a range of factors and analysis of recent incidents”.

“The decision to change the threat level is taken by MI5, independently of the ministers,” he said.

“The public should remain vigilant, but not alarmed, and continue to report concerns to Northern Ireland Police.

Over the past 25 years, Northern Ireland has transformed into a peaceful society. The Belfast Agreement (Good Friday) shows how peaceful and democratic politics improves society.

“However, a small number of people remain determined to harm our communities through politically motivated violence.

“In recent months we have seen an increase in terrorism-related activity in relation to Northern Ireland, targeting police officers serving their communities and also endangering the lives of children and other members of the public.

“These attacks have no support, as evidenced by the response to the abhorrent attempted murder of DCI Caldwell.

“I pay tribute to the tremendous efforts of Northern Ireland Police and security partners, and the determination and resilience of the Northern Ireland people, who are making Northern Ireland a safer place to live and work.

Northern Ireland’s political future rests with the democratic will of the people and not the violent actions of a few. Together we ensure that there is no return to the violence of the past.’

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson called on the government to fund more police officers in the region.

“It’s bad news for Northern Ireland when the risk of further attacks shifts to ‘probable’ or ‘very likely’,” he said.

“I look forward to a day when the threat level is removed, but to get there the community needs to get behind the police and demonstrate that there is no room for terrorism in Northern Ireland by 2023.

“The government has pledged to help fund 7,500 officers in the PSNI, but has not yet fulfilled that promise.

“With police officers facing such a threat, now is the time for the government to provide additional funding to ensure that the Northern Ireland Police Force has the full capacity to deal with this threat.”