For years the equation was simple. No Harry Kane, no hope for England. While losing the captain would be a huge blow, Ollie Watkins' improvement in 2023 means they can still win the 2024 Euros without him.
Unai Emery gets most of the credit for Aston Villa's title win, but Watkins is not far behind. He has scored 21 times in the league in 2023 and is the most effective English striker in the league this season.
Only Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah have been involved in more goals than Watkins, who has struck nine times while leading the way with eight assists.
“It's amazing because even when he's not scoring or providing assists, he always does a good job, which is a really good example for everyone,” Emery said. 'We need his goals and assists and he played a fantastic game against Burnley.'
Like many Villa players, Watkins has transformed since Emery replaced Steven Gerrard in the autumn of 2022. He admitted that under Gerrard he was 'trying to head in my own crosses', while under Emery he is much more focused, and the performance against Burnley was a perfect example.
Ollie Watkins' improvement in 2023 means England could win the Euros without Harry Kane
For years the equation was simple: no Kane, no hope for the Three Lions in tournaments
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Tasked with stretching Burnley's heavy back four, Watkins was on the end of two long passes from Diego Carlos and Ezri Konsa and promptly created the first two Villa goals, scored by Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby.
Burnley leveled twice through Zeki Amdouni and Lyle Foster before Douglas Luiz's penalty gave Villa the final say.
Watkins was able to immediately convince Emery of his qualities, but Gareth Southgate needs a little more convincing.
When picking Watkins for the games against Australia and Italy, Southgate discussed the dangers of 'recency bias' when choosing players – even though Watkins' form had been excellent for almost a year by then.
But barring injury or a spectacular loss of form, Watkins will be on a plane to Germany next summer and while he's not at Kane's level (and honestly, how many centre-forwards are?), the 28-year-old would be the best. he started number 9 for many other countries, and his progress is the result of ferocious work.
Watkins immediately convinced Unai Emery of his quality and was key to Villa's title push
When picking Watkins for two games, Southgate discussed the dangers of 'recency bias'
When Emery ordered a 'beep' test to measure endurance shortly after his arrival, Watkins finished at the top of the charts, just ahead of John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey.
In painstaking detail and using attackers who have previously played for Emery's teams, such as Villarreal's Gerard Moreno, Watkins is told what moves to make when the ball is in certain positions – for short crosses, deep crosses or through balls.
Much of this instruction is given via video analysis, by Emery himself or his coaches.
This is Watkins' fourth season in the top flight and he knows how difficult it is to adapt.
While they may not have enough to stay afloat this season, Burnley will be better because of their experience and it is encouraging to see striker Lyle Foster looking so sharp again.
Watkins scored his third international goal during England's 1–0 win over Australia
Foster scored the second goal and was a constant threat, with boss Vincent Kompany paying tribute to the 23-year-old, who suffers from anxiety and depression.
Foster was granted leave last month to receive treatment for his mental health, but this was his fourth appearance in a fortnight.
Kompany said: 'I feel enormous joy, very specific to his situation. We were actually dealing with a human tragedy, a young boy who had completely lost it, and a good boy at that.
'To see him enjoying the game and smiling after the match makes me quit as manager. As a human being, I am very happy to be part of this moment.
'We were in a very dark room. It's severe, severe depression. We did what we could to support him. We put his interests first and everything else last, thinking only of him. All I hope is that he stays that way. I will enjoy witnessing that.”