NFL draft: high demand and supply set to create a glut of first-round QBs

OThe 89th annual NFL draft kicks off on April 25 in Detroit, Michigan. As team owners, general managers, coaches and scouts dig into the top prospects preparing to move from college to the pros, there’s a good chance four quarterbacks will be selected in the top 10 for the third time in history. In fact, for what would be the first time ever, the top four picks could all be quarterbacks.

That depends in part on the talent available at the game’s most important position this year. Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner coming out of the University of Southern California, is considered a generational prospect with a skill set compared to Patrick Mahomes. He’s almost certain to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Chicago Bears.

Then there’s the man who won the Heisman for the 2023 season, Jayden Daniels. The 23-year-old played five years at the college level, starting at Arizona State before blossoming for three seasons at Louisiana State University. Last year, he emerged as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks to enter the draft since two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who threw for 40 touchdowns and rushed for 10 more.

Drake Maye was less impressive in his second season as a starter at the University of North Carolina than the year before, when he broke the school record for passing yards and tied the Tar Heels’ record for touchdowns. But his size, arm talent and athleticism have him compared to Josh Allen. JJ McCarthy, expected to be the fourth quarterback, lacks the statistical chops of the other three, but he led Michigan to a national championship last season. There’s also a chance that one or both of the projected second-round picks, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr, could be taken within the first 32 selections.

For all the talent on offer, the clamor for quarterbacks in this year’s draft is as much the result of rare levels of desperation among teams to find franchise stars at the position.

As a clear indication of their intention to draft a quarterback with the No. 1 pick, the Bears traded Justin Fields, their starter last season and the 11th overall pick three years ago, to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for a 2025 sixth-round pick. The Washington Commanders, who picked No. 2, made a similar move when they traded the starter from last season, Sam Howell, traded to the Seattle Seahawks. And third, the New England Patriots are expected to land a new quarterback after their 2021 No. 15 pick, Mac Jones, failed to spark the post-Tom Brady era at Foxborough and was traded to the Jacksonville this offseason Jaguars.

In addition to the teams owning the top-three picks, there are a number of quarterback-needy franchises ready to offer future draft capital to move into the top five. The Arizona Cardinals own the fourth overall pick, but with Kyler Murray already on the books, they don’t need a quarterback. The same goes for the Los Angeles Chargers, who are ranked No. 5 and have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert.

The Minnesota Vikings, who lost Kirk Cousins ​​to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, are the most important of the contingent that Doing I do need a quarterback. They seemed to indicate their intention to put together an attractive package of choices to trade in at a later date they added the 23rd overall pick from the Houston Texans to their own number 11 selection last month. Combining these two picks with a future first or second round pick could be enough to convince the Cardinals, Chargers or even the Patriots to trade back.

But there are also the New York Giants, who may make the move for the injury-prone Daniel Jones at the end of next season. They have the sixth pick and are faced with the conundrum of whether to use their first-round selection to address another area of ​​serious need – such as wide receiver, a position where the 2024 draft is chock full of talent – or else have to trade up to secure one. of the top-rated quarterbacks, or sit around and hope someone falls for them.

The Denver Broncos, who shot last month the largest dead cap hit in NFL history to release Russell Wilson are also on the hunt for a new quarterback, though that calculus may have shifted after trading for Zach Wilson on Monday. The Las Vegas Raiders, who sit one spot behind, are another quarterback-hungry team despite signing borderline journeyman starter Gardner Minshew in free agency.

Like most sports, the NFL is a league in which the chasing pack tries to emulate the perceived best practices of recent winners. When it comes to drafting quarterbacks, two philosophies are in vogue: either look for the next Mahomes by spending draft capital on selecting the most talented player available and then building around them; or build a strong roster of offensive linemen and pass catchers, then find a competent game manager, on a cheap rookie contract, further down the draft to bring them together. That cheaper contract makes it possible to use multiple stars at other positions, as Brock Purdy has done for the San Francisco 49ers.

But Mahomes and Purdy are imperfect examples of the methodologies they have come to represent. Mahomes wasn’t a top pick: He was taken 10th overall in the 2017 draft. And the Chiefs traded up to get him, meaning he joined a strong team that had been 12-4 the previous season. He was able to sit out most of his rookie season and learn from the veteran Alex Smith before joining an offense that featured the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and was overseen by one of the great offensive minds in Andy Reid.

And the Niners asked for talent at quarterback when they traded three first-round picks to move up in 2021 and take Trey Lance at third overall. Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 draft, was never intended to be a starter; he only got his chance when Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injuries.

Chicago is well positioned for the best of both worlds. They can acquire Williams because they have the first overall pick thanks to a trade last year with the Carolina Panthers, who finished the 2023 season with the NFL’s worst record. The Bears have added depth and experience to a receiving corps that already included DJ Moore with the signing of six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen. They also have the ninth pick, which could further strengthen their clique of pass catchers or improve another department.

But there are still no guarantees when it comes to drafting quarterbacks. There was a similar level of hype surrounding the 2021 draft class, which saw three quarterbacks taken with the first three picks and five in the top 15.

Four of those five – Lance, Fields, Jones and Wilson – have already been traded away by the teams that selected them. That year’s No. 1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, was considered the best quarterback to enter the draft in nearly a decade, but even he hasn’t lived up to the high expectations that came with his selection by the Jaguars.

This year’s draft will produce a better pool of talent at quarterback than most classes, but whether that pool can meet the high demand for franchise stars is far from certain.