TThe danger is always overreaction. We’ve seen Manchester City dip earlier in this stage of the season. Yet Saturday’s defeat against Brighton means that Pep Guardiola has lost four games in a row for the first time in his managerial career. It would be extremely premature to suggest that the empire is crumbling, but at the same time, for the first time in a long time, there is a sense that City’s aura is beginning to decline.
But first some context. One defeat was in the Carabao Cup and another in the Champions League, where City are in 10th place; Even if they miss out on the top eight who automatically progress to the last sixteen – they have Feyenoord (home), Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain (away) and Club Brugge (home) next – they will surely at least do so in the are play-offs. But two of the recent defeats have come in the Premier League, away to Bournemouth and then to Brighton, and as a result City are five points behind Liverpool.
It is not unusual for City to experience a slight fluctuation at this stage of the season. Guardiola wants his teams to reach their peak in March and April, when the crucial matches take place in Europe. Therefore, the characteristic pattern of City’s title successes is for them to turn on the burners in the spring and either abandon a challenger or withdraw from the competition. suit. That means they are not quite at their best at times in the autumn, and perhaps there is also a sense now that Guardiola is figuring out how best to deploy his resources and develop his adjustments and innovations for the season.
Right at this point last season they were going through a difficult period, a run of six Premier League games in which their only win was an unconvincing 2-1 victory over Luton. After the last game of that series, a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace, City had 34 points from 17 games. This season they have 23 points from 11 games. That is to say, there is a good chance that halfway through the Premier League season, 19 games in, it is very likely that they will have around the 40 points they had last year. Perhaps Arne Slot’s Liverpool, who went five points clear in Saturday’s 2-0 win over Aston Villa, are more formidable rivals than Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal – City’s visit to Anfield on December 1 should provide a clearer indication – but in terms of their own numbers There is no reason for City to panic.
The performances haven’t been terrible either. City were the better team against Sporting and Brighton in the first half and could easily have been a few goals ahead at half-time in both games. On another day, their late strikes against Bournemouth and Tottenham would have scored the equalizer. But the thing is, they suddenly look vulnerable.
Guardiola has been around so long that the flaws in his flank have become known. He favors a high line, meaning that if the press goes wrong, his teams can often be undone by simple balls behind the defensive line. That’s why he spends so much time focusing on control and not giving the ball away in situations that could lead to a counter. And the press is currently not functioning perfectly, perhaps largely due to Rodri’s absence. Injuries should never be an excuse – the very best teams don’t worry about absences, but find a way to deal with them – but it may be an explanation. Injuries in general clearly played a role. Kevin De Bruyne has just returned, Rúben Dias and John Stones are missing at the back and the absence of Jack Grealish, Jérémy Doku and Oscar Bobb has reduced their creativity.
When things go wrong for Guardiola’s sides, they tend to concede goals in sudden bursts – as if the way players have to subject themselves to the demands of the system means there is no one with the personality to step up and grab a match if necessary. system is threatened. We conceded two goals in three minutes against Sporting; against Brighton it was two out of five. Rodri, like Vincent Kompany before him, was perhaps leader enough to prevent that failure of the mechanisms; He is also missed in that regard.
But this side is also struggling in unknown ways. Kyle Walker, whose pace has been such a great asset throughout his career, suddenly looks, if not slow, then at least not what he used to be. It could be a fitness issue, but it could also be that age is starting to wear him down at 34. And then there is the more general issue of fatigue, which Guardiola is starting to talk openly about. Almost all top players play too much, but perhaps they feel it more when they have already achieved so much. Maintaining hunger is one of the great challenges for successful managers. And who knows what impact the Premier League charges against City have had?
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It was a run of two wins in seven games at this stage five years ago that gave the first indication that City would cede the league title to Liverpool, but that is the only time Guardiola has not found a way back. He may do that again, but bringing City back from here could be his biggest challenge.
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This is an excerpt from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, the Guardian US’s weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have a question for Jonathan? Email footballwithjw@theguardian.com and he will provide the best answer in a future edition