Manchester City may be the reigning English, European and world champions, but they are no longer the favorites to win the Premier League, according to new statistics.
City are probably the best team in the world right now, after a sensational Treble in 2022/2023, but they are yet to hit their ferocious and ruthless peak this season.
That said, Pep Guardiola’s side are still third in the table, four points behind with a game in hand. So they remain well within the conversations, and their previous origins still make them favorites for many.
The Citizens seemed close to one of their terrifying runs where they looked virtually unstoppable, but this weekend they hit something of a roadblock against Chelsea.
A late equalizer from Rodri spared their blushes after Raheem Sterling came back to haunt his former club in the first half, with the match ending 1-1 and City dropping points – which appears to have damaged their chances of retaining the title .
Pep Guardiola’s side drew 1-1 at home to Chelsea on Saturday, dealing a blow to their title chances
The reigning champions saw their title ambitions fall by 17 percent as they continued to lose ground
Erik ten Hag’s side have been in good form of late and have seen their Champions League hopes improve
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According to data from the Twenty First Group, Man City are now only second favorites to go all the way, but only by a margin of one percentage point.
That comes after a matchweek in which City’s chances fell by 17 percent, while Liverpool’s improved by 11 percent and Arsenal’s by seven percent.
Despite a drastic overhaul in the summer, Liverpool are now beating the champions and leading the way with a 38 percent chance of winning the title.
The Reds sit top of the table with 57 points, having lost just two games all year, and are still in the process of winning the Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Europa League and Premier League this season.
They may also be buoyed by the fact that their talismanic manager Jurgen Klopp has already announced his intention to leave the club at the end of the season, with everyone at Anfield surely hoping to send him away as champions once again.
Behind the Reds, City is on 37 percent, while Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal – second in the 2022/2023 season – is in third place with 25 percent.
The Gunners have had another impressive season, although a swing over the festive period saw them off the pace.
However, victory over Liverpool earlier in February marked a return to their best form and they have since scored 21 goals in five games.
City’s draw has seen them drop to second place, while Liverpool take them on a percentage chance of taking the title
Jurgen Klopp’s side sit at the top of the table and have now overtaken Man City as the most likely champions
Arsenal has been in blistering form of late after scoring 21 goals in five games to move the team to second in the table
Arteta and Co are now just two points behind Liverpool in second place, and despite already taking four points from the Reds and three from City this season, they are considered the third most likely champions by Twenty First Group.
There is then a significant drop to fourth and fifth places, with both Aston Villa (19 points) and Tottenham (47 points) given less than a one percent chance of winning the title – the only other teams above zero.
In terms of the race for the Champions League places, each of the top three has a better than 99 percent chance of qualifying, which is perhaps understandable.
Villa and Spurs have a 73 percent and 62 percent chance of making the league, while Manchester United (28 percent), Newcastle (seven percent), Chelsea (five percent), Brighton (four percent) and West Ham (one percent) are outside contenders.
However, Tottenham saw their qualification chances fall by 16 per cent after losing 2-1 at home to Wolves on Saturday, while United’s are up six per cent during their own mini-resurgence in recent weeks.
Unai Emery’s Villa apparently had the best week of the bunch; their hopes of finishing in the Champions League rose by 12 percent after they beat Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage.
Data from Twenty First Group shows how the recent matchweek has changed the chances of Premier League success and Champions League qualification this season
Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham have seen their Champions League hopes disappear after Saturday’s defeat at home to Wolves
Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Nottingham Forest’s win over West Ham boosted their bid to overcome defeat.
They are now 12 percent better off in their relegation battle, while Luton are down nine percent.
The three teams promoted to the top tier at the start of the season are still the most likely candidates for relegation: 71 percent (Luton), 92 percent (Burnley) and 98 percent (Sheffield United) to return to the top. Championship.
Despite currently being in the bottom three and receiving a 10-point penalty, Sean Dyche’s Everton are only the fourth most likely side to go down, with an 18 percent chance of relegation.