Nikki Haley’s supporters in New Hampshire believe she may have a secret weapon in her arsenal to defeat Donald Trump next week: a 10-degree temperature rise.
Strategists believe the improved forecast for Tuesday’s primaries will push participation to record levels and bring out the less-engaged voters she needs to beat front-runner Trump.
“It should be in the mid-40s,” said Greg Moore, senior adviser to Americans for Prosperity Action (AFPA), an independent group that supports Haley’s “what we call late January shorts weather.”
Haley finished in third place Monday in the Iowa caucuses, the first real test for the candidates running for the Republican nomination.
New Hampshire is the second state to decide, and a victory for Trump could prove too much for Haley or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to overcome in the rest of the race.
New Hampshire was hit by a snowstorm on Tuesday, but temperatures are expected to rise by about 10 degrees next week, which could lead to record turnout in the state’s primary elections.
But the northeastern state’s suburban and less religious population may offer Haley the best chance to stop Trump’s juggernaut.
Moore said AFPA polling last weekend showed Haley within striking distance of the former president.
“This is a race within a handful of points,” he said. “Some things may have changed between Sunday when we got our last numbers and now, but this is within a handful of points.
“You can count on one hand.”
Monday’s caucuses in Iowa took place in subzero temperatures. Two snowstorms closed roads in the final week of the campaign.
And Moore said it was a big factor in suppressing turnout. About 110,000 Republicans flocked to church halls, gyms and convention centers — the lowest number in a decade.
The weather is warmer in New Hampshire and looks like it will reach at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, ten degrees warmer than this week.
Haley’s supporters are counting on record numbers on Tuesday and expect the numbers to far exceed the 2016 Republican primaries, when 285,000 participated.
This time there is no meaningful Democratic primary, so they expect independents to join the Republican fight.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley visits Kay’s Cafe and Bakery in Hampton, New Hampshire on Friday as part of her latest effort to win the state
Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner and Haley needs a strong showing in New Hampshire to maintain her momentum ahead of a tough test in South Carolina
“The other thing is that as you reach such a broad level of participation, you attract more and more mainstream voters and more casual observers of politics,” Moore said.
The group’s campaigners are calling and knocking on doors to try to reach those people in the final days and get them to vote for Haley.
“We think this gives us a great opportunity to have those conversations at the door and talk to people about why they should vote for Nikki Haley,” he said.
‘And we think that especially many of those people who are less and less politically committed… we notice that we have good conversations at the door.’
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Haley, the former governor of South Carolina.
Trump supporters drove through a snowstorm on Tuesday to see him appear in Atkinson
But the weather won’t be as bad as in Iowa, where temperatures were below zero
Trump stormed to victory in Iowa on Monday with more than 51 percent of the votes
“She either has to win or have a very, very strong second place,” said New York donor Eric Levine, who is supporting her.
The outcome of the primaries will determine what comes next.
“A lot of New Hampshire is about her,” he said. She needs to be able to show that she can take on Trump, and I think New Hampshire is that state.
“I think the polls show she’s going to do very well.”
DeSantis is in a distant third place. His tough war on the woke isn’t playing as well with Republicans in New Hampshire and he’s spending the weekend campaigning in South Carolina.