The specter of Donald Trump loomed large in Tuesday’s special election in New York, helping propel Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi to victory, exclusive polling data shows.
Although the former president’s name was not on the ballot, more than a third of Democrats said the most important issue for them in the election was “stopping Donald Trump.”
The second most important issue, mentioned by 27 percent, was ‘threats to democracy’.
On the other hand, border security was by far the most critical factor, even in an election so far from the border with Mexico.
Suozzi defeated Republican Mazi Pilip to take the seat left vacant when fantasist George Santos, also a Republican, was expelled from Congress.
Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi celebrates his victory in the special election to replace Republican Rep. George Santos. His victory was made possible because voters thought of Trump
JL Partners surveyed 500 people who had already voted or planned to vote in New York’s Third Congressional District, which stretches from the city to Long Island.
The win will reassure Democrats that they can perform strongly in suburban communities, a crucial battleground in November.
Strategists on the left and right will pore over the results to draw lessons for November’s presidential elections.
To test voting patterns, JL Partners surveyed 500 people who had already voted or planned to vote in New York’s Third Congressional District, which stretches from the city to Long Island. The fieldwork was carried out just before the elections, from February 10 to 12.
Pollster James Johnson cautioned against extrapolating too much from special elections.
But he said there weren’t enough Republicans in today’s election to overtake Suozzi’s large lead in the early voting.
“One of the main reasons Democrats went to the polls was, as they told us, to ‘stop Donald Trump’ and because of concerns about ‘threats to democracy,'” he said.
“These concerns were also widespread among independents and were more important to increasing turnout in this election than the limit. Suozzi’s tough stance on the borders probably also helped him neutralize that problem.’
In fact, the border was also the third most important issue for Democrats.
In contrast, the border and immigrants were cited by 68 percent of Republicans as the issue that most motivated them, dwarfing other factors such as inflation (seven percent) and crime (five percent).
The border was by far the most important issue for Republicans, beating out inflation, crime and abortion in the minds of voters
The independents were more divided. The border was issue number one, but only slightly ahead of “stopping Donald Trump” as a motivation for voters
Republican congressional candidate Mazi Pilip speaks to supporters after conceding to her opponent on Tuesday evening. She was criticized for being absent from the campaign
The New York media is filled with images of asylum seekers lining up for hotel rooms across the city and warnings that services simply cannot cope with an influx of more than 170,000 people.
Last week, police arrested seven migrants in the Bronx in raids targeting a gang that used scooters to rob people of cellphones.
Suozzi dug into the issue, challenging his Republican rival on crime, taxes and immigration.
In November, Johnson added, Trump’s hold on the Republican base will likely help the candidates.
“Things will be very different in November: Although Trump boosted Democratic turnout yesterday, he could increase Republican turnout in the general election. A better and more visible Republican candidate will also help the Republican Party. But in this election, concerns about Trump and democracy simply drove Democrats to vote in greater numbers than Republicans — and for Tom Suozzi, that was all that mattered.”
“Donald Trump lost again tonight,” Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign said. “If Republicans follow Trump’s extreme agenda — even if they are in a Republican seat — voters will reject them.”
However, Trump’s role in the election was seized upon by Democrats and rival Republicans.
The campaign of Nikki Haley, who is still running against Trump for the Republican nomination, said it supported the contention that the former South Carolina governor was more electable.
“We just lost another winnable Republican House seat as voters overwhelmingly reject Donald Trump,” spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas said. “Until Republicans wake up, we’re going to keep losing.”
And the 2024 Biden-Harris campaign said voters had once again rejected Trump’s “chaos.”
The following is a statement from Biden-Harris 2024 Campaign Manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez on the results of tonight’s special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District.
“Donald Trump lost again tonight,” campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said. “If Republicans follow Trump’s extreme agenda — even if they are in a Republican seat — voters will reject them.”