After dramatic changes at the top of the Democratic presidential nomination, Democrats are increasingly confident that they can retain the White House and the Senate and capture the House of Representatives with Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate.
But two congressional districts could determine the fate of the country, not only at the top of the ballot in November, but also in both chambers of Congress: Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District.
The argument for keeping an eye on these two districts to see how the election is unfolding was first made by former New York congressman and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Steve Israel.
He wrote In June, “when the dust settles, the only information you’ll need to conclude who won the 2024 election will be the results of Pennsylvania’s 8th and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional districts. For the next five months, they will be the center of the political universe.”
The road to the White House could run through two congressional districts, one in Pennsylvania and one in Nebraska
While the top of the Democratic presidential ticket has changed, the importance of both districts has remained the same.
8TH DISTRICT OF PENNSYLVANIA
Population: 766,586
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District is represented by Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright.
In 2018, he turned Pennsylvania’s northeastern district, which includes Scranton, blue after Democratic voters turned out overwhelmingly following the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The district had been red since the 2010 midterm elections.
He has since held the district in 2020 and 2022, even as Republicans made some gains in the House in the last midterm elections.
This fall, Cartwright will face Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. The race is an uncertain one, according to the Cook Political Report.
Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has shown how important the district is to his chances of winning the crucial state.
The former president held a rally in Wilkes-Barre, PA two weeks ago, with the race in the keystone state still razor-thin. Republican House candidate Bresnahan also spoke at the rally.
Former President Donald Trump campaigns in Wilkes-Barre, PA on August 17, 2024. The city is part of Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district
The swing district is represented by Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright, but Republicans want to flip the district with Republican candidate Rob Bresnahan Jr.
THE 2ND DISTRICT OF NEBRASKA
Population: 658,116
Meanwhile, Nebraska has been a solidly Republican state in presidential elections since 1964. But because of the unique way electoral votes are distributed, the state could play a major role at the top of the ballot and in the House of Representatives.
Nebraska is one of two states that awards a portion of its electoral votes by district. That means that while most votes have historically gone to Republicans, in 2020 one elector from Nebraska’s 2nd district went to Biden, as did one vote in 2008 for former President Obama.
As both presidential candidates seek 270 electoral votes in a highly competitive race, that one vote from the district that includes Omaha could prove crucial.
Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz holds a campaign rally in Omaha, NE on August 17, 2024
Nebraska distributes a portion of its Electoral College votes by congressional district, allowing Democrats to win one vote in the district Omaha is in even if the state turns red
The Harris campaign made this clear recently when it sent Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz to Omaha for a campaign event earlier this month.
The district is also a battleground in the House of Representatives, as Republicans hold a slim majority there and Democrats are looking to flip it.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is currently held by Republican Don Bacon. He has held the seat since his first election in 2016, by less than 4,000 votes over a one-term Democrat incumbent.
Bacon will face a rematch against Democrat Tony Vargas, who also ran against him in the 2022 midterm elections but lost by fewer than 6,000 votes.
Cook Political Report rates the House race as overwhelmingly Republican, even as Democrats aim for an Electoral College.