According to new research, the number of people with diabetes worldwide will rise to 1.3 billion in less than three decades.
The explosion in cases — more than double the 529 million now — will be largely driven by the world’s ever-expanding waistline. But a growing elderly population, who are more at risk for the disease, could also be contributing to the uptick.
Scientists at the University of Washington, Seattle, called the numbers “alarming” and warned of an impending wave of heart disease and stroke.
More than 96 percent of cases will be type 2 diabetes, they said, a form of the condition often linked to obesity and lifestyle.
The chart above shows estimates for global diabetes cases. The number of people with the condition is predicted to more than double by the year 2050 compared to 2021
The maps above show the proportion of people with diabetes – type 1 or type 2 – in 1990 (left) and predicted to have the condition in 2050 (right)
For the study, published in the Lancetscientists analyzed the diabetes rates for 204 countries and territories around the world between 1990 and 2021.
These figures were used to estimate how diabetes rates would rise globally by the year 2050.
They found that one in ten people would develop diabetes within three decades, compared to six percent today.
In the United States, rates had increased by more than 160 percent since the 1990s. By the year 2050, estimates suggested that up to 14 percent of citizens would have the condition.
In the UK, the scientists said rates would rise from six per cent in the 1990s to a maximum of 14 per cent over the next three decades.
Overall, North Africa and the Middle East will see the sharpest increases in diabetes rates, they said — from nine to nearly 17 percent of people.
Latin America and the Caribbean came in second, with a predicted rate of people with diabetes of 11.3 percent.
The rise will be driven almost entirely by type 2 diabetes – linked to lifestyle – while rates for type 1 – linked to genetics – remain flat.
Scientists said about half of new diabetes cases could be linked to obesity.
But the other half may instead be related to other factors, such as a person’s age, unhealthy diet, or even air pollution.
People over age 65 are more at risk of getting the disease because they tend to have less muscle — a tissue that helps maintain insulin sensitivity — and are less active.
Some research has also suggested that air pollution may cause type 2 diabetes, claiming that the particles can cause inflammation in the body when they cross the skin barrier, making cells more resistant to insulin.
Dr. Liane Ong, an epidemiologist behind the paper, said: ‘The rapid growth of diabetes is not only alarming but also a challenge for any health system in the world, especially given that the disease also increases the risk of ischemic heart disease. and stroke.’
While the general public may think that type 2 diabetes is simply associated with obesity, lack of exercise and a poor diet, preventing and managing it is quite complex due to a number of factors.
“That includes a person’s genetics, but also logistical, social and financial barriers within a country’s structural system, especially in low- and middle-income countries.”
Co-author Dr Lauryn Stafford, also a Washington diabetes expert, said: ‘Some people may be quick to focus on one or a few risk factors, but that approach doesn’t take into account the conditions in which people are born and live. that cause inequalities worldwide.
Researchers said the growing waistline of the world was to blame for the rise in diabetes patients
“These inequalities ultimately affect people’s access to screening and treatment and the availability of health services. That is exactly why we need a more complete picture of how diabetes has affected the population at a detailed level.’
Diabetes is a chronic condition that affects how the body converts food into energy. Normally, the body breaks down food into glucose, a type of sugar, and releases it into the bloodstream. This raises blood sugar levels, which triggers the pancreas to release insulin.
However, in diabetes, the body does not make enough insulin, leaving too much blood sugar in the bloodstream.
People with the condition need to monitor their blood sugar constantly to make sure levels don’t get too low or too high.
If blood sugar levels are not controlled, patients are at greater risk of nerve damage that can lead to loss of sensation or blindness.
Studies suggest they are three times more likely to have a heart attack and 20 times more likely to have a leg amputation – caused by damage to blood vessels – compared to people who do not have diabetes.
People with the condition are also at greater risk of stroke, heart disease, kidney failure or even Alzheimer’s disease — among a host of other conditions — scientists say.
About 37 million Americas or one in 10 have diabetes, statistics suggest — with 90 percent facing the type 2 form. More than four in five Americans are also overweight or obese.
In the UK, about five million people have the condition.
The study in The Lancet was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.