Former President Donald Trump has a five-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas, with early voting in the state set to open in less than a week.
But the battle for Senate in the Lone Star State could be razor-thin.
According to the poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, the ex-president is polling 51 percent to Harris’ 46 percent among likely voters in Texas.
Another one percent of likely voters support other candidates, while two percent are still undecided.
But when it comes to the battle for the Senate in Texas, incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz faces a formidable challenger in Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, as the Republicans consider retaining the seat crucial as they look to flip the Senate in November.
The latest polls show Cruz with a four-point lead over Allred in the crucial Senate race in Texas
The new poll shows Cruz with 50 percent of the vote, while Allred is at 46 percent, just a four-point difference. And three percent of voters in the race are still undecided.
Cruz leads Allred by double digits among men, 56 percent to 41 percent. But Allred has a seven-point lead among women, 51 percent to 44 percent.
The Republican senator leads among likely white voters by 22 points, 60 percent, to Allred’s 38 percent. But Allred leads Cruz by 62 points among likely black voters.
Cruz and Allred are also in a close race among Latino voters, with 48 percent backing Allred, while 45 percent backing Cruz.
It comes as Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988. But Cruz won his 2018 re-election bid by just 2.6 points.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Cruz with a four-point lead, putting Allred within striking distance with 20 days to go.
An opinion poll conducted between September 26 and October 10
Meanwhile, Trump’s lead in the state at the top of the list is similar to other polls from Texas.
He has a lead of more than five points in the early elections as of Oct. 21, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average.
The polls show the ex-president with a large advantage among several groups of voters in Texas, including double digits among likely white voters and men.
Among men, Trump leads Harris by 15 points with 56 percent to her 41 percent. But Harris doesn’t have as big an advantage among female voters as he does in other key states. She leads Trump only with women 51 percent to 46 percent.
A new poll shows Donald Trump with a five-point lead over Kamala Harris in Texas in early voting on October 21
When it comes to likely white voters, Trump has a 22-point lead with 60 percent, compared to Harris’ 38 percent. That includes a 33-point lead among white men and a fourteen-point lead among white women.
However, Harris has a huge 70-point gap among black voters, 84 percent to fourteen percent. Her lead expands to a 78-point gap among black women and a 64 percent gap among black men.
The pair are statistically tied when it comes to Texas voters, with 48 percent supporting Trump while 47 percent support Harris. Trump has a nine-point lead among Latino men, while Harris has a two-point lead among Latino women.
Trump is also the leader among older generations of voters, with 61 percent among Boomers and the Silent Generation. Conversely, Harris also leads among Generation Z with 61 percent.
Democrats have long been trying to make inroads in the Lone Star State with its 40 electoral votes, but the polls show they still have a way to turn Texas blue.
The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump won the state in 2020 by more than five points.