Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the latest DailyMail.com/JL Partners national poll before Election Day, with the former president holding a three-point lead over the vice president.
Both candidates have strengthened their bases, but Trump has done a better job of winning support from independents and undecided voters in the final push, the data shows.
The poll of a thousand likely voters shows that Trump has 49 percent support compared to Harris’ 46 percent.
The race is still close. Still, with five days to go, the numbers mean he is currently on track to become the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.
The vice president had a one-point lead when the poll was last conducted in September.
JL Partners surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 26 to 29. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, but put Donald Trump back in the lead after falling behind
She enjoyed a two-month honeymoon after President Joe Biden announced he was ending his re-election campaign. Her poll numbers and fundraising soared amid a wave of enthusiasm.
But since then the race has tightened and become one of the closest in history.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the poll was good news for Trump’s chances of winning the White House.
“The movement beneath the surface suggests that Trump has a better closing moment at generating enthusiasm than Harris, and undecided candidates and outside candidate supporters have also favored Trump in the past month,” he said.
“He has also seen improvement among voters of all races, leading in all age groups except 18-29 year olds.”
The full results show that third-party candidates are making little progress.
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver are all at just one percent.
The share of the independent Cornel West is rounded to zero percent.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race
Perhaps the most striking finding is the gender mismatch in the competition.
“One thing sets this election apart from others: when voters go to the polls next week, they will be sharply divided by gender, with women more likely to vote for Harris and men more likely to vote for Trump,” Johnson said. .
Harris can count on the support of 54 percent of women, while Trump has the support of 40 percent.
Men break 59 to 37 for Trump.
After doubts on both sides, the two candidates can now count on the support of their own party. Harris is supported by 94 percent of Democrats; Trump is supported by 93 percent of Republicans.
And there’s more good news for Trump as his campaign works to win votes. Enthusiasm for the former president is greater (74 percent say they are very enthusiastic for him) than for Harris (67).
A month ago, Harris led Trump by five points.
But all is not lost for Harris. Trump’s lead is made possible by a 43-point advantage among rural voters. Harris remains on course to win the suburbs, where our poll shows her with a two-point lead.
Trump wore a high-visibility vest for trash pickers at his rally in Wisconsin on Wednesday night as he tried to keep comments about his supporters being “trash” in the headlines
Your browser does not support iframes.
Johnson said this was a “ray of light” for Harris.
“That could mean that Trump’s vote now looks more inefficient,” he said. “It could look much closer in swing states if Harris can drive home her suburban votes.”
Trump’s danger, he explained, was that he could win a high number of votes in red states, while the distribution of Harris supporters could help her win swing states.
The two candidates are now crossing the states that will decide the outcome in the Electoral College.
Both had faced negative headlines in the past week.
Trump launched his closing message Sunday evening at Madison Square Garden in New York, an event that was overshadowed by a comedian who made disparaging comments about Puerto Rico.
And Harris made her final pitch near the White House but was overshadowed by President Joe Biden who apparently called Trump supporters “trash,” though his words were slurred.