DeSantis has a better chance of beating Biden in 2024 than Trump, according to DailyMail.com poll

President Joe Biden would beat his Republican challenger, whoever it is, if the general election were held tomorrow — but Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would edge him closer than former President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll by DailyMail. com/JL Partners.

But with 17 months to go there is everything to play for as Biden lags behind the independents and the numbers point to an excruciatingly tight race.

The poll of 1,000 likely general election voters found that in a Biden-DeSantis matchup, the Democratic nominee would take 44 percent of the vote to 43 percent.

Democratic voters seemed more motivated in an election against Trump, giving Biden a 46 percent lead over the former president’s 44 percent.

Mike Pence, the former vice president, who entered the race last week, won 38 percent to Biden’s 41 percent, while Chris Christie, Trump ally turned nemesis, would take just 32 percent to Biden’s 39 percent.

Trump is the clear front-runner in the Republican primary. Polling averages give him a more than 30-point lead over DeSantis, with Pence a distant third.

Supporters of the other runners fear Trump could romp to the nomination, but his legal woes and polarizing demeanor would then scare off general election voters, allowing a weak opponent in Biden to cling to the White House.

JL Partners co-founder James Johnson who conducted the poll said the data played an important role in that analysis.

“There is one clear picture: Trump is the least popular potential candidate among Independents and is the only one not to beat Biden with the group critical to the next presidential election,” he said.

Among independents, Biden wins by five percent in a head-to-head contest with Trump, while other Republicans fare better.

DeSantis inverts those numbers with a five percent lead over the president among people who identify neither as Republican nor Democratic.

The surprise package could be Pence. He could face animosity from Trump supporters who feel he hasn’t done enough to keep their hero in office, and anger from Democrats who see him as a vice president who may have the former president’s worst excesses made.

Still, the poll showed him doing best among the independents, with a six-point lead over Biden.

“The key to the next presidential election will be independent voters: they gave Biden the presidency in 2020 and were critical to the narrow vote in the House in 2022,” pollster Johnson said.

‘The candidate that appeals most to this critical group of voters? Mike Pence.

He leads Biden among Independents by 6 points, 38% to 32%.

“In general, what’s holding back some of his numbers is those in 10 Republicans who say they don’t know how they’d vote — but in an election, they’d probably side with the GOP.”

Pence launched his campaign in Iowa, where he believes his message will resonate with evangelical Christian voters who make up a significant portion of the state’s Republican electorate.

Christie, who entered the race the same week as Pence, may be facing the hardest path of all. He launched in New Hampshire, where he hopes his reputation on the center right will appeal to the state’s generally more moderate Republican voters.

Our poll showed that Republican voters had the least enthusiasm for the former governor of New Jersey of the four candidates. Only 60 percent of Republicans said they would support him in an election against Biden.

Pence can count on 72 percent, DeSantis on 84 percent, and again, Trump’s grip on the GOP is clear: Some 90 percent of Republicans say they would support him if he were the nominee.

The poll was conducted from June 12 to 15 and used landlines, cell phones, text and apps to reach 1,000 likely U.S. general election voters. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.