Republicans in Washington are blaming and pointing fingers after a Democrat won the special election for New York’s Third District seat, further shrinking the Republican Party’s already slim majority in the House of Representatives. Some campaign experts say Tom Suozzi’s victory sets a successful path for Democrats to take back the House of Representatives in November and is a red flag for the Republican Party.
Suozzi single-handedly won the race to replace Republican ex-congressman George Santos, the serial liar who was expelled from Congress last year and faces criminal charges.
New York’s Third District includes parts of Queens and Long Island, a region that has turned red in recent years. The district voted for Biden in 2020, but Santos won the seat in 2022 as part of the red wave in New York’s suburbs.
“Tonight is the final wake-up call for the GOP,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz wrote on X Tuesday night.”If they ignore or try to explain away why they lost, they will lose in November too.”
He claimed that the issue agenda was on their side, but their “Congress behavior” was not.
Luntz argued that the district “hates” Biden’s immigration policies, but Republicans in Congress gave voters “nothing to vote for.”
Democrat Tom Suozzi, who previously represented New York’s Third District for three terms, celebrates his victory in the special election on Tuesday evening
Republican Mazi Pilip thanks supporters and vows to keep fighting for ‘common sense’ government after losing New York special election
Pollster calls New York special election results ‘final wake-up call’ for Republican Party in House of Representatives
Immigration was the top issue during the campaign, as lawmakers in Washington clashed over border security.
After months of negotiations, a bipartisan group of senators released a conservative plan to address the border. But the House of Representatives and some Senate Republicans immediately shot it down when former President Trump came out strongly against the deal.
Instead of shying away from border security during the campaign, Suozzi focused on the issue. He held a press conference about it and ran ads, including one discussing Fox News’ ICE.
Republican Mazi Pilip rejected the proposal, claiming it would give the green light to an invasion of the southern border.
According to tracking by AdImpact, more than $21 million was spent on advertising during the special election. The most mentioned topic: immigration.
Mazi Pilip campaigns with the chairman of the National Border Patrol Council outside a migrant center. Border security was a heated debate topic in the New York special election
Strategist Lis Smith praised Suozzi’s approach to the special election and also argued that Democrats can flip the script on Republicans when it comes to immigration.
Democratic strategist Lis Smith said Democrats could take a page from Suozzi’s book and go on the offensive on the issue. She called immigration one of the best weapons Republicans have been able to use against Democrats in the past, but Suozzi managed to flip the script.
She argued that Republicans in battleground districts should be fearful heading into November.
“Immigration was one of their top issues to take offense on and now it has been removed from their arsenal because so many Republicans decided to follow Donald Trump over the cliff and thwart the bipartisan border deal,” Smith said.
“It was a huge, huge miscalculation on their part, and they paid for it in New York Three, and they will pay for it in November,” Smith said.
But Republican strategist Scott Jennings believes Suozzi’s approach will be harder to copy in November. He said Suozzi sounded more like a Republican than a Democrat on immigration issues.
“The quality of the candidate matters and you have to do it in a way that seems natural, not inauthentic,” Jennings said, noting that Suozzi had name recognition, a record and money to live on.
Suozzi previously represented New York’s Third District for three terms. He also served as mayor and as Nassua County executive.
But Jennings sees another “wake-up call” for Republicans because of Tuesday’s special election results: getting the party to embrace early voting.
“I think as long as Republicans continue to oppose casting your vote whenever you can and continue to insist on voting on Election Day, you’re always one blizzard away from a problem,” he said.
Democrats had a solid advantage with early in-person and mail-in voting, then a snowstorm on Tuesday caused major headaches for much of the reason.
“While I don’t think we can blame the Republican Party’s loss on the weather (the snow stopped around noon and the roads were likely cleared), it does underscore the risk the Republican Party is taking by largely eliminating early voting options.” avoid,” wrote Tom Bonier, senior advisor at polling firm TargetSmart.
Suozzi gives a thumbs up, surrounded by supporters, during a campaign stop on Election Day as a snowstorm swept through the region. Democrats had an advantage by voting early before the storm hit
The New York special election took place in a swing district that includes parts of Long Island and Queens
Former Mitt Romney campaign aide Kevin Madden wouldn’t go so far as to shake up the Republican Party on Tuesday, but said there are certainly lessons to be learned from both sides between now and November.
“There is a lot of work to be done by candidates who will run in swing districts like this across the country,” he said.
He noted one major difference in November: The candidates will appear on the same ballot as the presidential candidates.
Party leaders had different takeaways from the special election.
The White House leveraged Suozzi’s support for a bipartisan immigration deal, arguing its results were a strong rejection of Republicans who were “putting politics before national security.”
The Biden campaign placed the Republican Party’s loss squarely on the shoulders of former President Trump.
Former President Donald Trump castigated Pilip, wondering if she, whom he called a “very foolish woman,” was “still a Democrat?” He also condemned her for entering a race in which she did not support him, claiming that MAGA was staying home.
Pilip has served as a Republican in the county legislature but remains a registered Democrat.
Some strategists noted a key difference between the New York special election and November: Biden and Trump could be at the top of the ticket. Candidates in lower voting districts will have to determine how to navigate that reality
During the campaign, Suozzi avoided appearing with Biden ahead of the special election and acknowledged that the president’s age at 81 raises questions, a concern that has plagued the Biden campaign.
Meanwhile, Pilip also struggled to determine how to address former President Trump during his campaign. She would not say who she voted for in the 2016 election and only began praising Trump’s tenure later in the race.
No matter how many candidates look to localize their races this fall, strategists believe the presidential candidates with all their baggage at the top of the ticket will have some impact in swing districts in November, regardless of what the down-ballot candidates do.