In Sudan, fierce fighting has been raging for five days between the army and a paramilitary force, despite calls from international stakeholders – Arab, African and international – for an end to the violence and dialogue.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) initially said on Tuesday they had agreed to a one-day ceasefire, but it was quickly broken. A United Nations-brokered ceasefire on Sunday to allow aid and rescue was also broken.
The generals leading the two forces, Hemedti and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF, de facto president since the removal of his former ally, strongman President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, have increasingly taken their fight to residential areas in Khartoum and elsewhere. leading to at least 270 deaths.
Observers are increasingly concerned about the possible consequences of this ongoing conflict.
“The situation in Sudan is a major regional security challenge for the Horn of Africa,” Ovigwe Eguegu, policy analyst at Development Reimagined, told Al Jazeera.
“Given the risks of all-out civil war and associated problems such as refugees, there are also serious concerns that this could become a focal point for major power politics due to the reliance of the Sudanese military and the RSF on foreign powers for finance and weapons .”
The United States has coordinated with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on Sudan, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaking to both Hemedti and al-Burhan, calling for restraint.
Anna Jacobs, a senior analyst with the Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that “at the moment all regional and international actors are trying to stop the fighting”.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have recently grown close to Hemedti as he sent his soldiers to fight with the Saudi Arabian-led coalition against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. But they will likely play a neutral role, at least for now.
The two Arab countries, Jacobs said, will continue to work with the US and UK through the so-called Quad, made up of all four countries, while other regional and international actors work through the larger Friends of Sudan, which are regional and Western countries.
Meanwhile, the regional power of Egypt, which is trying to protect its interests in a dispute over a major dam Ethiopia is building in the Blue Nile, has close ties with Sudan’s military.
The two armies regularly hold war games, including this month when they held joint naval exercises in Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
“Countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant influence over Sudan’s various military and paramilitary groups and can use this influence to push for de-escalation and to stop the fighting,” Jacobs said.
Meanwhile, leaders from several African countries have said they plan to visit Sudan, but it remains unclear if or when that will be possible as fighting continues and the airport remains a focus for the warring factions.
Eguegu believes that African Union (AU) mediation would be best in this situation, especially as it would avoid any perception of bias by individual mediators.
For example, he added: “the RSF is unlikely to accept an Egyptian mediation. At this point, the AU is the best option… The effort will take place within the Trilateral Mechanism [AU-UN-IGAD] according to the communiqué released yesterday by the emergency session of the AU Peace and Security Council.”
Al-Burhan has said the current situation is not suitable for the arrival of the presidents of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which consists of eight countries.
Further east, Russia and China have joined the call for restraint and an end to the fighting.
Russia had gained a growing foothold in Sudan during al-Bashir’s decades-long rule, at one point even reaching an initial agreement to build a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast.
The American and European powers had competed with Russia for influence in Sudan after al-Bashir’s removal, while Moscow sought to use Sudan as a gateway to Africa while reaping economic benefits.
The Wagner Group, the powerful Russian mercenary organization that became increasingly visible after fighting in the war in Ukraine, has been active in Sudan for years.
It is unclear if its soldiers are currently fighting in Sudan, but the group has developed close ties to the RSF over the years, particularly in the area of gold mining and shipping – a resource Sudan has in abundance.
Both Washington and Moscow therefore appear invested in ending the fighting in Sudan, but at the same time the US can prevent Russia from strengthening its influence in the midst of the conflict.
Existential threats
The warring generals currently don’t seem interested in mediation or a lasting ceasefire, Cameron Hudson, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., told Al Jazeera. He therefore believes that it is unlikely that any power will make significant progress in securing the peace.
“The parties are clearly not concerned about the consequences of their actions,” Hudson told Al Jazeera. “They are interested in their own survival and the preservation of their own power. In such a situation, when the threats they face seem existential, it is hard to imagine what a compromise would look like.”
Jacobs of the Crisis Group agreed that local dynamics, which are the main drivers of the conflict, would complicate the situation.
“International and regional actors can push for de-escalation and an end to the fighting, but it is unclear if and when these pressures will lead to positive results,” she said.
On the other hand, Hudson said the US is also concerned about the different interests of regional countries and how they may affect the situation.
“There is a real risk that neighboring states will get involved to help ensure an outcome that suits their interests. That is what Washington is now trying to avoid.”
Regardless of how successful current efforts are proving to be, some in Sudan have criticized the impact of mediation efforts to date and how the repeated emphasis by international stakeholders on a rapid transition to citizen-led governance – but in a process under surveillance of military actors – has led the country to its current position.
“All these statements from US, EU and Gulf officials condemning the violence in Sudan without any acknowledgment of how their mediation efforts have led us directly to this point,” tweeted Nisrin Elamin, an associate professor at the University of Toronto currently detained in Khartoum with her toddler.