ATLANTA– It’s a pattern that Southern states have been repeating for decades: A federal court rules that an electoral map illegally dilutes the power of black voters and orders a new one.
But as Georgia lawmakers return Nov. 29 for a special session to debate new voting districts, some things are different.
Unlike previous decades, when Republicans avoided losses, some Georgia GOP lawmakers are now likely to miss the mark as new districts are drawn. U.S. District Judge Steve Jones in October ordered Georgia to draw a black majority in an additional congressional district, two additional Senate districts and five additional state House districts.
A new black-majority congressional district, combined with similar rulings in other Southern states, could help Democrats win back the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024. New legislative districts could shrink Republican majorities in Georgia.
But some Democrats could also be jettisoned as Republicans seek to obey the court while maintaining their power. The Republican Party could limit losses in the Georgia General Assembly by targeting Democrats who represent predominantly white districts. But it is unclear whether the Republican Party can legally prevent Democrats from gaining a seat in Congress.
“Republicans could take it out on white Democrats instead of Republicans,” said Charles Bullock, a political scientist at the University of Georgia who studies redistricting.
The Republicans have not yet unveiled their plan.
“We will get to a place that Judge Jones will be able to accept and that will be best for our members,” State House Speaker Jon Burns recently told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Senate Republicans are looking forward to the state’s planned appeal. If the state wins an appeal later, Georgia could have new districts in 2024 and return to current lines in 2026.
“We have gone through the process. We followed the letter of the law. And we believe we will ultimately win there,” said Senate Majority Leader Steve Gooch, a Republican from Dahlonega.
From the 1970s through the 2000s, white Democrats in the South fought a rearguard action against demands for black representation and rising Republican power. Legislative chambers in the South eventually switched from Democratic to Republican control, with only Virginia returning. New districts that benefited black voters often created an adjacent, heavily white district in which Republicans were elected. At times, Republicans advocated for more black districts, and supporters of minority representation tacitly accepted the support of the Republican Party.
That dynamic disappeared after the 1990s, in part because Southern Democrats were disappearing outside majority-minority districts.
“There are honestly not many white Democrats left,” Bullock said.
A key question is whether Republicans can dissolve Georgia’s current 7th Congressional District, represented by Democrat Lucy McBath, while drawing a new majority-black district on the west side of metro Atlanta, as directed by Jones. The 7th’s voting population is 33% white, 27% black, 21% Hispanic, 15% Asian, and 4% other or multiracial.
Jones wrote in his order that Georgia cannot solve its problems “by eliminating minority opportunity districts elsewhere,” but it is not entirely clear whether that applies to the 7th District, which is largely in the suburbs of Gwinnett County.
Splitting the district could preserve Republicans’ current 9-5 majority in Georgia’s congressional districts. Before 2020, that majority was 8-6, but Republicans re-elected McBath’s old 6th District in their favor. McBath jumped to 7th, defeating that district’s Democratic incumbent. But moving blocks of Democratic voters to other districts could upset surrounding Republicans. It could also conflict with Jones’ order, said redistricting expert Kareem Crayton of the Brennan Center for Justice. He warned against “moving deck chairs on a ship that is still sailing towards illegality.”
Opportunities for Republicans to limit losses could be better in the Georgia Legislature. Of the state House’s 78 Democratically represented districts, whites make up the voting majority in eight districts and the largest group in 12 others. Whites make up the voting majority in three Democratically represented Senate districts, and a majority in three other Democratic districts.
Jones ordered two additional black-majority state House districts and two additional black-majority Senate districts in south metro Atlanta, and one new black majority House district in west metro Atlanta. Republicans could draw those districts and shift existing black-majority districts, putting pressure on white Democrats.
State Rep. Mary Margaret Oliver, a long-serving Decatur Democrat whose white-majority district touches several black-majority districts, calls redistricting a “hand-to-hand fight with your neighbor.”
“It’s not a pretty process,” she said. “It’s a selfish process in many ways.”
Some Republicans are still in danger. Republican Sen. Brian Strickland of McDonough lives in an area highlighted by plaintiffs for a new black-majority district. He says he will continue to fight even if his district is redrawn.
“I have no control over the redistricting process, but I can control who I am as a candidate,” Strickland said. “And so I am prepared to deliver my message to voters, regardless of which district I am in.”
Republicans could have the hardest time avoiding losses in two new black-majority districts that Jones ordered around Macon. There are no white-majority Democratic districts nearby that could be redrawn to save the Republicans.
All these considerations mean Democrats are likely to make some gains, Bullock said.
“The Democrats may not win all of these seats that are on the checklist, but I would be very surprised if they don’t win some,” he said.