Oscar organizers want this weekend’s gala to have greater appeal and draw a crowd, after seeing viewer numbers plummet over the past decade.
To that end, more blockbusters like Top Gun: Maverick have been nominated in the best picture category of the 95th Academy Awards than in recent years.
Still, that doesn’t mean the producers of a fan favorite will take the stage to collect the top award at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles on Sunday night.
An analysis by DailyMail.com shows a chasm between the blockbuster movies that crowds love and the rarely seen movies that bookies predict will roll out of the envelope by the end of the night.
We compared a recent YouGov poll of some 2,000 US moviegoers with the favorites to win the best picture award, according to sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings.
Our graph shows how US popcorn consumers continue to deeply disagree with the nearly 9,500 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
American viewers say Top Gun: Maverick should win best picture at Sunday night’s Academy Awards. Pictured: Tom Cruise reprising his role as bad boy fighter pilot
It shows that most regular theatergoers want the top prize to go to Top Gun: Maverick, last year’s blockbuster that features Tom Cruise reprising his role as a bad-boy fighter pilot.
Instead, bookies say academy members will likely select Everything Everywhere All At Once, a wacky sci-fi indie game about a Chinese-American immigrant family.
The same goes for second place. Real-world audiences are interested in James Cameron’s computer-generated blockbuster Avatar: The Way of Water, the most expensive movie of all time.
Instead, the bookies say the second most likely winner is The Banshees of Inisherin.
The tragicomedy, set on a remote island off the west coast of Ireland in the 1920s, barely made the top 100 grossing last year.
The pattern continues. The third most likely winner from bookmakers, however, is the acclaimed anti-war epic All Quiet on the Western Front, a foreign-language film in German and French.
Our chart shows how American popcorn consumers continue to deeply disagree with the nearly 9,500 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
The stark difference between high-grossing crowd favorites and what the academy rewards has been a growing problem in recent years.
Like other awards shows, the Oscars have been steadily losing viewers, particularly among young people who are attached to social media.
In 2014, a whopping 41.7 million people tuned in to the ceremony, says media monitor Nielsen.
Last year, just 15.4 million people watched a gala that was more notable for Will Smith’s slapping of Chris Rock than any of the awards that were handed out.
DailyMail.com columnist Maureen Callahan says the ‘woke’ Oscars have been overwhelmed by ‘whiny and self-indulgent’ celebrities making ‘irritating virtue-signaling speeches’ that make the annual party obsolete.
This year’s outing will be peppered with suitable moments to spread the word on Twitter and TikTok, organizers say.
A correspondent rehearses as preparations for the 95th Academy Awards take place in the Hollywood section of Los Angeles, beginning at 8 pm EST on Sunday.
Nominees for this year’s best picture category include All Quiet on the Western Front and Triangle of Sadness.
Bookies say the film most likely to emerge as the best picture winner is Everywhere All At Once, an absurd sci-fi indie romp about a Chinese-American immigrant family.
Entertainment producer Ricky Kirshner said an effort had been made to stage a more relevant event with more well-known films, after years of mounting criticism that only boring, fair films made it through.
“We’re there to entertain and highlight the big movies this year, a lot of which people have seen, which is great for us,” Kirshner said this week.
The best picture winners of recent years have been criticized as boring and overly virtuosic independent selections that appeal to industry insiders but struggle to draw large crowds.
Last year’s winner, CODA, for example, offered a snapshot of life within a deaf family.
Other recent winners include Nomadland, about a woman in her sixties who lives out of a van, and Green Book, about a working-class doorman who leads a black pianist on a tour of the American South in the 1960s.
The academy’s clumsiness in its best picture selection was underscored in 2017.
Real-world audiences are more interested in James Cameron’s computer-generated blockbuster Avatar: The Way of Water than critics.
Although less well known, All Quiet on the Western Front, a foreign language film in German and French, is popular with critics and those who have seen it.
The hit musical La La Land was wrongly announced as the winner, only for the award to go to Moonlight, about the identity and sexuality of a young black man.
That doesn’t mean the academy is always wrong: The YouGov survey highlighted recent times when the best picture award went to films adored by average punters.
Sadly, they are mostly in the rear view mirror.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is the most beloved film winner of recent years, either ‘loved’ or ‘liked’ by a staggering 92 percent of Americans.
But that was 20 years ago, in 2003.
Other popular main category winners include Ridley Scott’s epic Gladiator (which won in 2001), The King’s Speech (2011), and Cameron’s sinking disaster of the Titanic liner (1998).
Comedian Jimmy Kimmel, who helped weather the turmoil of 2017 when the wrong best picture winner was announced, will return to host this year’s ceremony.
It will air on ABC and can be streamed with a subscription to Hulu Live TV, YouTubeTV, AT&T TV, and Fubo TV.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is the most beloved film winner of recent years, either ‘loved’ or ‘liked’ by a staggering 92 percent of Americans. But that was 20 years ago, in 2003.