Amazon’s own delivery network processes a rapidly growing share of it American packagesAccording to a recent internal forecast, this figure could be close to nine out of ten packages by 2029.
Amazon’s latest preliminary forecast sets its own forecast delivery network on 86.3% of U.S. packages in 2027, 87.4% in 2028 and 88.7% in 2029, according to a late July internal planning document that Business Insider reviewed.
The shift is happening faster than Amazon previously expected. Previous estimates put first-party delivery at 83.8% of U.S. packages in 2027 and 85% in 2028, the document said.
In 2023, the company said it delivered more than two-thirds of its own packages in the U.S., the last time it made that figure public.
Amazon’s latest plan assumes its own delivery network will handle roughly 12.2 billion U.S. packages by 2027, growing to 15.8 billion by 2029.
The previously unreported figures quantify how profoundly Amazon’s relationship with the traditional parcel industry has changed. Over the past decade, Amazon has transformed itself from one of the largest customers of carriers like UPS and the US Postal Service to a delivery giant in its own right.
Some third-party carriers have also withdrawn or changed the capacity they provide. At the same time, greater control over delivery has become increasingly important for Amazon’s retail business. CEO Andy Jassy has said that faster delivery will lead customers to consider Amazon for more of their purchases.
An Amazon spokesperson told Business Insider that the projections should not be interpreted as definitive plans.
“We are always planning and forecasting our activities, and we regularly produce numerous versions and updates of planning documents,” the spokesperson said. “All internal projections are preliminary, subject to significant revisions, and should not be treated as final or definitive plans.”
Amazon is absorbing the growth
Amazon’s forecast has almost all of the expected parcel growth flowing through its own network.
Under the plan, total U.S. package volume will grow from approximately 14.1 billion in 2027 to 17.8 billion in 2029, an increase of approximately 3.7 billion packages. During the same period, the volume allocated to external carriers hardly changes and fluctuates around 2 billion parcels.
Amazon’s first-party network doesn’t mean Amazon employees make all those deliveries. Much of the last-mile network relies on independent Delivery Service Partners who use Amazon-branded vans, as well as Amazon Flex contractors who deliver packages in their own vehicles.
Amazon forecasts expect some of the fastest growth to come from its Sub Same-Day network, which stores products closer to customers for delivery within hours. Amazon’s share of first-party package volume is expected to grow from 17.1% in 2027 to 21.3% in 2029.
Forecasts indicate that Amazon’s rural network will account for just over 11% of first-party package volume. The company has committed more than $4 billion to triple the size of that network by the end of 2026.
Amazon is also trying to make its delivery infrastructure faster and more productive.
Business Insider reported this earlier Amazon is testing all-day delivery with faster shipping windows and exploring Walmart stores below Project Kobe which can serve as a collection point and local delivery hub. It also develops Project Tetrominoa highly automated delivery station that could process packages faster.
Amazon foresees a shrinking role for traditional carriers
As Amazon’s own delivery network grows, it expects traditional carriers to handle a smaller share of its packages.
USPS stock is falling according to Amazon’s forecasts. The company’s previous plan allocated about 13% of U.S. packages to the Postal Service by 2027, compared to about 10% in the newer forecast. Under the latest plan, that share will drop to 8% by 2029.
The drop comes after an exciting round negotiations with USPS about a new supply contract. The companies reached an agreement at the beginning of this year.
The new USPS contract, signed in April, provides for a minimum of 1.27 billion packages, 19% less than the minimum of the previous contract, according to the latest document on Amazon’s forecasts. The preliminary plan allocates about 1.4 billion packages annually to USPS, although the final amount will depend in part on the capacity and coverage of Amazon’s own network.
UPS, meanwhile, has decided to cut the volume it handles for Amazon by more than half by the second half of 2026, citing lower profitability. According to Amazon’s preliminary forecast, UPS will handle 1.8% of its U.S. packages in 2027, dropping to 1.4% in 2029, or roughly 250 million packages per year.
FedEx plays a smaller role, accounting for about 0.4% of Amazon’s U.S. package volume. Amazon has revived it relationship with FedEx last year after the companies cut ties in 2019.
Amazon isn’t completely ruling out traditional carriers. The internal document says the USPS contract expires in 2029 and assumes it will be extended “given the interdependence between Amazon and USPS.”
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