A record 3.7 million workers in England will suffer from serious illness by 2040 research.
On current trends, an additional 700,000 working-age adults will face high healthcare needs or a substantial risk of mortality by 2040 – almost 25% more than in 2019, according to a report by the charity Health Foundation.
But the authors predict that there will be no improvement in health inequalities for working-age adults by 2040, with 80% of the increase in serious diseases happening in more deprived areas.
Researchers from the Health Foundation Research Department and the University of Liverpool examined 1.7 million GP and hospital records, as well as mortality data, which were then linked to geographical data to estimate the difference in diagnosed disease by level of deprivation in England in 2019, the past year of health data before the pandemic.
They then projected how levels of ill health in England are expected to change between 2019 and 2040 based on trends in risk factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, diet and physical activity, as well as disease rates, life expectancy and population changes. .
Without action, the authors warn, people in the most deprived areas of England are likely to develop serious illness a decade earlier than those in the least deprived areas and are also three times as likely to die by the age of 70.
Chronic pain, type 2 diabetes, anxiety and depression are expected to increase more rapidly in the most deprived areas, while the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is four times more common in the most deprived areas than in the least affected areas. These conditions significantly impact quality of life and can limit people’s ability to work for extended periods of time.
The findings came as separate new figures showed record levels of economic inactivity. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, the number of people unemployed due to long-term ill health is now one record number of 2.8 million.
The Health Foundation warned that without more action to improve the health of working-age people, the government’s target of improving healthy life expectancy by five years by 2035 and narrowing the gap between the areas of best and worst health will be compromised. will be missed by a significant margin.
Jo Bibby, health director at the Health Foundation, said good health is a “precious commodity”, adding: “A healthy workforce is the backbone of any thriving economy. We are already seeing the impact of poor health on the economy, with record numbers of people out of the workforce.
“Without action, the number of working-age people with serious illness will increase, especially in the most deprived areas of the country.”
In addition to tackling smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity and harmful alcohol consumption, the report also called for an intergovernmental approach to tackle poor housing, inadequate incomes and poor quality jobs, investing in public services and employers to improve working conditions . and the well-being of staff.
Responding to the findings, Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive at NHS Providers, called for more support and funding for public health services.
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“National support is critical for local councils to meaningfully improve the health and wellbeing of their communities,” Cordery said.
“Without this, demand on already limited NHS services will increase even further.
“A government approach is needed to prevent ill health, starting by tackling the root causes why some people – such as those living in poverty and deprived areas, as well as ethnic minorities and people with learning disabilities – are more likely to prevent health problems. have poorer physical and mental health.”
TUC general secretary Paul Nowak criticized “years of underinvestment in the NHS” and said: “As well as urgent support for the health service, we must also tackle the wider causes of poor health – insecure work and poor wages.”
A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “NHS England is working to reduce health inequalities and improve health outcomes for the poorest 20% of the population, regardless of where they live.
“Our Back to Work plan, backed by £2.5 billion, is also helping more people into work – including those with long-term health conditions – so everyone can reach their full potential.”