Inside Labor’s historic win in the Aston by-election which humiliated the Liberals and Peter Dutton

In the aftermath of Labour’s historic Aston election bombshell, the most notable analysis was not at all about Anthony Albanese and Labour, but about the almighty rejection of Peter Dutton and the Liberals.

When the Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell called Labor’s Mary Doyle just before 9pm to congratulate her, there was no turning back from a huge blow to the coalition.

Ms Doyle, a mother of two from eastern Melbourne, advocated cheaper childcare and a free TAFE policy – traditional Labor policy values ​​- during the election.

But it was how the coalition’s recent struggles – shaken by Anthony Albanese’s Federal Labor in May 2022 and demoralized by Chris Minns’ NSW Labor just a week ago – now appear to have turned into a full-blown crisis for the Liberals on Saturday.

Labor victory seemed impossible. Even if it was obvious, analysts didn’t dare mention it because the result would have been too incredible.

Former Labor Secretary Stephen Conroy described Saturday night’s victory as “an earthquake” to Sky News. ABC continued to call it “extraordinary.” Both were correct.

It was the first time in more than a century that a sitting government won an opposition-held seat in a by-election.

While Albanians have promoted Labor as a positive force for change, the coalition – once seen as a safe pair of hands – appears to have twisted itself into an unpopular “nasty” brand, even the party’s own analysts warn.

“The electorate’s perception might be that it’s just the ‘nasty’ party,” said former Liberal strategist Tony Barry.

“The “annoying” party has come up in our research – they’re just a little “annoying.” They have lost the brand of economic management.’

The Libs’ failed attempt to blame the ALP for the cost-of-living crisis and rising interest rates was apparently roundly rejected by voters.

The loss leaves the Liberal Party with just two seats in the entire Melbourne metropolitan area after 20 years of underperforming in Victoria, Barry said.

And he said it’s now clear the party is tearing down its coalition with the Nationals — who have consistently held onto their seats and vote share.

Mr Barry added ominously: ‘It will get worse – before it gets [even] worse…’

The quip reveals some deeply troubling long-term trends for the wounded giant.

According to political researcher Kos Samaras, the next generation to vote will comprise a higher proportion of LGBTQI people than ever before.

Historically, most people in those cohorts would vote Greens or Labour.

The Libs already struggle with Generation Z, people born in the late 1990s or early 21st century.

Analysis shows that the Liberal Party garners about one in five (20 per cent) Gen Z votes across Australia, while in Melbourne it is said to be just a number.

Rarely has the horizon looked so bleak for one of Australia’s largest political parties.

Speaking in the party room earlier this week, the prime minister said anything less than five per cent would be considered a failure for opposition leader Peter Dutton.

As the outcome became clear, Federal Liberal MP Keith Wolahan made a plea for his party to come together.

He also supported Mr Dutton’s leadership, adding: “I saw good and bad leaders in the most difficult circumstances and he has all the qualities of a good leader.”

His comments were supported by fellow Victorian and Senator Jane Hume, who said she “cannot imagine there being any mood in the party room for (a change of leader).”

“There’s no doubt this is a blow, but he’s a leader with a solid team behind him,” she told the ABC.

Ms Hume said she was sad to see Ms Campbell lose the seat but denied that the result would lead to a move by Mr Dutton as leader.

“There’s no commotion in the banquet hall,” she said. “He has a united team.

But behind closed doors, it is agreed that Dutton is far from certain that he will advance the Liberal Party nationally – although no one is waiting behind the scenes to grab the poisoned chalice.

Anyone with ambitions to take over leadership can wait until they are sure the party has bottomed out before organizing their challenge.

Earlier, ABC political analyst Antony Green had called the Melbourne seat for Labor at 8.17pm after ballots showed voters turning against Dutton’s opposition in unprecedented numbers.

“This is a terrible result for the Liberals,” Green said as he put it for Labour. “It’s extraordinary.”

Albanese claimed victory in a statement at 8.44pm, saying he called Ms Doyle and congratulated the mother of three on her historic victory.

Based on two party affiliations, Labor has 53.45 per cent of the vote and the Liberals 46.55 per cent with a swing of 6.3 per cent not even Labor supporters expected.

“Aston is painted red from start to finish,” Green said on ABC. “This is just an extraordinary result.”

Ms Doyle took a massive 7.3 per cent blow for the party in the federal election last May, but outgoing MP Alan Tudge still retained the seat by a 2.8 per cent margin.

The formerly safe seat in the outer eastern suburbs was vacated by former minister Tudge when he retired in February, triggering Saturday’s by-election and giving Ms Doyle a second chance at winning.

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