You thought it was hot now! Scientists predict the UK’s average weather in the year 2080
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Britain is in the middle of this year’s first spell of unbearably hot weather, but it could be just a taste of what’s to come in a few decades.
Scientists predict that temperatures in the UK will be high enough in 2080 to cause ‘broad mortality’, much like the 2003 European heat wave.
In a single summer week in 2080, temperatures will reach 41C (105F) in London, while weekly averages will be 28C (82F) in much of southern England.
This compares to peak summer temperatures in London of 31C (87F) and southern England weekly averages of 20C (68°F) in the 1970s.
Manchester, meanwhile, will exceed 38C (100F) at least once a week during a summer of 2080, and Plymouth and Glasgow are likely to hit 35C (95F) weekly.
The study predicts peak summer temperatures of 41C in London and weekly averages of 28C across much of southern England. This is similar to 31C and 20C in the 1970s. Image shows UK daily maximum temperatures for the 1970s (left) and projections for the 2080s (right)
Temperature projections for London, Plymouth, Manchester and Glasgow during an ‘example extreme week’ in 2080, likely a summer heat wave. Temperatures for 2080 are indicated by the red line in each graph, as well as other decades both past and present in other colors
Last year the UK set a new temperature record of 40.3°C (104.5°F), but several regions are forecast to pass this on a weekly basis by 2080.
Temperatures in the largest cities, namely London, are generally hotter than the rest of the UK – and will continue to be so into the 2080s – due to densely packed buildings and more concrete and asphalt absorbing heat more quickly.
The study was led by Professor David Coley from the University of Bath’s Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, who emphasizes that the greatest risk of climate change lies in extreme weather conditions, not the average climate.
‘Climate change is normally discussed in terms of seasonal averages, as this is what is meant by the word climate,’ said Professor Coley.
“I think this is a possible mistake, as few of us understand how even small differences in climate imply vastly different worlds.”
The team cites the 2003 European heat wave, which killed 14,000 people in Paris alone, demonstrating the dangers of extreme temperatures rather than average temperatures.
In the past 20 years alone, heat-related deaths among people over 65 have increased by 54 percent, totaling 296,000 deaths in 2018.
“It’s such heat waves and cold snaps, and a lack of preparation for them, that are going to kill more and more people,” Professor Coley said.
“We need to think about climate change in terms of changing weather.”
Scientists predict UK temperatures in 2080 will be high enough to cause ‘widespread mortality’, much like 2003 European heatwave
Britain is experiencing its first unbearably hot weather of the year, following record-breaking temperatures in 2022
For their study, Professor Coley and colleagues produced a series of detailed weather forecasts for 11,326 UK locations at 3 square mile intervals for the year 2080.
Using weather generator software and a newly developed algorithm, the team built on Met Office climate forecasts to create the projections.
After entering the climate forecast data into the software, the weather generator produced 3,000 examples of possible weather forecasts for 2080.
Then, by looking for heat waves and examining how they changed over time, they found that there will be heat waves of a similar shape to the 2003 Paris event.
However, these will be ‘with even higher temperatures’, suggesting the likelihood of ‘large-scale mortality’.
The authors say climate change has the potential to undermine many of the gains made in public health over the past 50 years, which will “exacerbate existing inequalities.”
Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or those with pre-existing medical conditions, will be disproportionately affected.
“Exposure to high temperatures affects individuals through a variety of pathways, from heat stress and heat stroke to exacerbations of respiratory and cardiovascular disease,” they write.
Photo of the 2003 Paris heat wave, which killed 14,000 people in the city, according to researchers
Hundreds of people soak up the sun on Brighton beach during the 2003 European heat wave
Graphic summary of the study. Pre-2080s London heat waves ‘indicated life-threatening risk’
In addition, the UK is ill-prepared for temperature rises because buildings and infrastructure are not heat-resistant enough.
“There is no temperature record of the internal conditions in the buildings in which 14,000 people died in Paris in 2003,” the team says.
‘The predicted situation in London is similar to that in Paris, but with a higher peak temperature in London and a significantly higher nighttime temperature in London.
“It would therefore not be unreasonable to conclude that the UK can expect events in the future with a similar number of moralities as in Paris.”
Weather files with the extreme weeks for 11,326 locations have been prepared by the academics and made available onlinewhile the study is published in the journal Building and Environment.