WONDERS OF THE PYRAMID: The numbers show why rock-bottom Middlesbrough must not rush to axe Michael Carrick despite their poor start to the season

This weekend marks the real start of autumn, when big coats are brought out of the closet again and hot drinks during the break suddenly become attractive again. And with that, welcome back to the Sacking Silly season in the Football League.

In the Championship alone, 16 of the 24 clubs changed managers mid-season last year, with many pulling the trigger twice. So far this season, four Football League clubs have changed bosses – Huddersfield, Charlton, Tranmere and Fleetwood – with more to follow soon.

Huddersfield last night confirmed their replacement for Neil Warnock – who said he was ‘stunned and a little hurt’ by his departure – with Darren Moore taking over. Cheltenham also sacked Wade Elliott on Wednesday, despite the club having yet to score and taking just one point in eight games.

Michael Carrick, Michael Duff and Xisco Munoz are all under pressure in the championship. QPR fans are still not entirely excited about Gareth Ainsworth. In League Two, Sutton boss Matt Gray, who has done an admirable job with extremely limited resources, is struggling.

Two under pressure bosses met on Tuesday, with Carrick’s Middlesbrough and Xisco’s Sheffield Wednesday still both winless after a 1-1 draw at Hillsborough. Two clubs full of positivity last season – the Owls got promoted and Boro made the play-offs – both reek of negativity.

In Wednesday’s case, owner Dejphon Chansiri has already parted ways with new Huddersfield boss Moore, who led the Owls to the Championship after amassing 96 points. What a baffling decision at the time, despite the public fallout, and now it just seems foolish.

And so also to the low points Middlesbrough and Carrick. Does Steve Gibson pull the trigger based on the evidence from seven games? There’s certainly reason for that, as the results have been terrible this season. But a manager doesn’t just become bad overnight.

The ranking numbers speak louder than anything, but the underlying data suggests that all is not as bad as it seems. In their first six league games, Boro scored an expected goals (xG) of 1.65 per game, only slightly lower than last season’s 1.72 under Carrick.

Boro have more shots on target per game (5.17) than last season (4.67), win more possession in the final third and touch the ball in the penalty area more often. They don’t score on all statistics, but these numbers suggest that Boro’s position in the league is poor based on performance.

It would also be unfair to discuss Carrick’s side without talking about an exit this summer. Chuba Akpom, last season’s top scorer and Championship player of the year with 28 goals, left for Ajax. Cameron Archer, who formed a formidable duo with Akpom, is now staying at Sheffield United.

Ryan Giles, who topped the Championship Assist table and was a dynamic presence from left back, now plays for Luton in the Premier League. Experienced Alex Mowatt, who made 28 appearances in midfield, returned to West Bromwich. Replacements have not gotten off the ground.

Indeed, the squad looks incredibly unbalanced and the blame must be placed on recruitment this summer, which goes well beyond Carrick. Ivorian striker Emmanuel Latte was scheduled to replace Lath Akpom and Archer, but the ex-Atalanta man has just one goal and was left on the bench on Tuesday.

Asked if Chairman Gibson is calm, Carrick said this week: ‘I’m speaking to him – he’s not hiding from me yet! We speak often and the mood is calm. There is insight into what we are trying to achieve and how we are going about it. We all work together and that’s a big part of it.

‘We don’t accept results. It’s how you deal with it that’s important. There was quite a big turnaround in players, but I believe in the boys, regardless of age and how long they have been here.

“There is no acceptance that it will take a certain amount of time. We want it to be here and now. Everyone within the football club is connected. It doesn’t always work, but I’m convinced we’ll find a way. We have to keep pushing and improving as quickly as possible.”

Carrick is certainly not blameless in Middlesbrough’s downfall from play-off candidates to relegation candidates. His team was not good enough for most of this season. But looking at how weak the team is compared to last year, the problem goes beyond the boss.

Better managers than the former Manchester United midfielder have been sacked at this level, but in this case it seems premature. Who would realistically come in and do better?

Gibson should judge the young coach on his overall abilities, not on seven games this season.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

Rotherham v Preston, Championship, 3pm tomorrow

Preston have had the best start to a season in the history of the Championship, with six wins and a draw. Only four other teams have achieved 19 points from their first seven games; three finished in the top six and the outlier is Veljko Paunovic’s Reading. Like the Royals in 2020-2021, North End fans shouldn’t get ahead of themselves, but Ryan Lowe is doing a fine job.

Cambridge v Port Vale, League One, 3pm tomorrow

Andy Crosby’s Port Vale are third, but there is a realistic chance they can end the weekend top of League One with a negative goal difference. That oddity is due to the fact that they lost 7-0 on the opening day and then won five of the next six games by one goal. Crosby’s squad faces another team that punches above their weight here.

Southend v AFC Fylde, National League, tomorrow 3pm

More protests are planned in Essex this weekend against Ron Martin’s ruinous property, with Southend having a date with fate at the High Court early next month. Fans threw toy rats and tennis balls onto the Roots Hall pitch this week and will march from Pier Hill on Saturday, urging supporters to ‘unite in large numbers for a peaceful march, demanding an immediate change of ownership’.

CARDIFF EMBRACES A GENERATIONAL GAME

The Football League is full of heart-warming stories and two of them emerged last Saturday when Cardiff ended a four-match losing streak in the Welsh derby by beating Swansea 2-0, with both goalscorers having colorful stories.

At one end of the spectrum is substitute Ollie Tanner, who signed for semi-professional side Lewes – who play at the best named stadium in the country, the Dripping Pan in Sussex.

Tanner came off the bench and looked nervous as he fired Cardiff 1-0 ahead. The 21-year-old spent a spell on loan at York City in the National League, but a Minstermen fan told me he didn’t stand out at that level. Now he is a hero in Cardiff after helping them beat their bitter rivals.

Unlike Tanner, who hails from the seventh tier of the English pyramid, Erol Bulut’s Cardiff also features a player who has spent the last 15 years at the highest level of European football, with the likes of Arsenal and Juventus, as well as playing crucial roles has played in several international players. tournaments with Wales.

Aaron Ramsey is thriving again at the Bluebirds, who he left for the Gunners in 2008, and appears to be playing with a smile on his face for the first time in years. The Welshman, 32, also scored against Swansea – and netted in the Euro 2024 qualifier in Latvia earlier this month.