ARM systems could account for 50% of the PC Windows PC market before 2030. That’s not the belief of some Intel-hating idiot or slightly deviant doomsday proclaimer – it’s the opinion of Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, and it’s not as wild an idea as it seems.
Although, based on history, you could be forgiven for doubting him.
Microsoft Windows PCs and Intel x86 CPUs have been inextricably linked for 40 years, giving rise to the term “Wintel PCs,” which simply means similar Windows PCs running Intel CPUs.
For much of the history of desktop computers, the world’s most popular operating system ran on Intel CPUs. The x86 chip platform was so dominant that Apple eventually adopted Intel chips for its laptops and desktops, pushing aside custom Motorola/IBM PowerPCs.
However, since the mid-1980s, Intel’s main competition in the x86 space has been AMD Statista still estimates AMD’s market share at just 20%.
The divorce
The threat to Intel’s dominance and unwavering Wintel partnership does not come from AMD. No, the real competitor is outside the x86 platform and comes from a smaller and more efficient silicon country known as ARM (Advanced RISC Machine). ARM is not a chip building company; rather, it is an architecture, like x86, for building fast, efficient CPUs that meet the performance and light power needs of modern smartphones.
Some of the blame for the possible demise of the Wintel marriage lies with Apple. The company that once jettisoned more custom CPUs for the same x86 chips found in competing Windows systems made a pledge in 2020 to eventually transition all of its Mac systems to its own Apple silicon, a series ARM-based SoCs. Sure, Apple would need Rosetta 2 emulation software to bridge the gap between older apps and new, more efficient (and faster) silicon, but Apple was convinced it was worth the trade-off.
Spoiler alert: it was absolutely worth it and now, for example, the MacBook Airs with M3 SoCs are among our best laptops. They are faster and offer incredible battery life. More importantly, the Rosetta 2 connection doesn’t feel like a clunker, and using an M-class Mac feels the same as using an Intel-based Mac for most tasks.
Has Microsoft now looked at one of its main competitors and asked, “Where’s my ARM?”
Not exactly.
An ARM and a legend
Microsoft has been dreaming of Windows-on-ARM for over a decade. It was a pet project of former Microsoft Surface leader Steven Sinofsky, who showed off Windows RT on an ARM-based Surface RT tablet in 2012. It didn’t amount to much and the project eventually died – but not the dream.
Fast-forward 12 years and ARM-based SoCs are the beauty of the desktop and laptop computer ball. Apple proved that it was not only possible but desirable to run traditional desktop apps on what was initially designed as a mobile CPU.
Microsoft tried to follow suit with the SQ series on Surface Pro systems, but somehow it didn’t catch on. My guess is that Microsoft and its partner Qualcomm haven’t done enough to make the SQ series attractive, and Windows hasn’t changed enough to make the ARM/Windows objection-proof.
However, things have changed and we are at an inflection point where a Windows/ARM combination not only makes sense, but makes more sense than a Wintel PC.
With the launch of a Snapdragon X-Plus and X-Elite, Qualcomm is ready to power more than just a handful of shaky Windows 11 systems. This ARM silicon will form the core of almost twenty new laptops. Thanks to Prism (Microsoft’s version of Rosetta emulation software), these systems will soon be running much more x86 software than before. Most importantly, they will be using a very different Windows, one that has adopted AI as its north star.
The power of AI
Instead of just the combination of ARM processing and Microsoft’s Windows, you get a digital quad with the ARM CPU, Windows, an NPU, and Copilot.
You see, modern ARM SoCs are more than efficient and powerful CPUs and GPUs, and almost all of them contain neural processing units (NPUs). Like the coprocessors of your grandfather’s PCs that were dedicated to handling mathematical operations, these NPUs live for computing AI operations, and they are very good at it. A few months ago I saw the X-Elite effectively handle some pretty intense AI tasks (generating music, images and video) and do it all on the device without missing a beat.
The promise of these new chips is unprecedented power and battery life that in some cases can last more than a day instead of just a few hours.
Amon’s beliefs seem less wild when you consider how many OEMs are embracing these new chips. Where some may have been reluctant to support the new, especially in light of an ingrained Wintel marketplace, they are now ready to adopt Qualcomm’s ARM plan, if not with enthusiasm, then with gusto.
The reality check here is that while ARM-based laptops already hold about 10% of the market, it’s not necessarily 10% of the Windows PC market. That number could consist almost entirely of Apple’s last few years of silicon systems.
The number of Windows-on-ARM systems is probably a rounding error, but that’s for now. Offer consumers fast, AI-ready Windows laptops that can last 24 hours on a charge and connect anywhere, anytime via 5G, while sacrificing nothing on the performance side, and they’ll flock to them – even if they have to pay a premium.
I expect Qualcomm Windows Copilot PCs to sell like hotcakes and trigger the demise of the Wintel PC. Intel will survive, but its position could be greatly reduced.