Will it be Wham!, Sam Ryder or Mariah Carey? Christmas Number 1 is announced today – with Shane MacGowan’s Fairytale of New York also still in the running

The race that will be called the Christmas Number 1 of 2023 comes to an end later today – with the competition between the classics in the first post-LadBaby chart being neck-and-neck.

Festive favorites from Wham! and Mariah Carey are competing with Sam Ryder's You're Christmas To Me for first place, according to bookmakers.

YouTubers LadBaby's retirement from the No. 1 Christmas battle means 2023 will mark the first time there won't be a sausage roll-themed tune challenging the traditional choices for the coveted Christmas crown.

However, the campaign to get The Pogues' Fairytale of New York to number one in memory of frontman Shane MacGowan continued until the deadline for sales and streams passed at 11:59 PM on Thursday evening.

According to the official charts, this is the closest race in recent memory – with just 42 sales between Wham and Sam Ryder at the start of the week.

Mariah Carey in the video for the Make My Wish Come True edition of All I Want for Christmas Is You

A scene from the video for Wham!'s eternal Christmas single Last Christmas. The song is favorite to be named UK Christmas Number 1

Shane MacGowan in the video for The Pogues' Fairytale of New York. A campaign to get the song to number one is being coordinated by fans in memory of the late frontman

Eurovision star Sam Ryder has launched an aggressive marketing campaign in the battle to get his new song, You're Christmas To Me, to number one later today

Martin Talbot, CEO of the Official Charts Company, said: '(This) feels much more exciting than it has in recent years.

'LadBaby has dominated the last five years and I think by the time it reached its fifth Christmas number one last year, people were keen to see something fresh and new.

'We've obviously got the classics hitting the charts again, we've got the usual range of charity records driven by everyday people who just want to raise some money for good causes, and we've also got one or two really interesting releases too, like Sam Ryder .'

How are the official charts determined?

In 2014, the official charts began including audio streaming in the singles chart as sales fell out of favor with the rise of services like Spotify.

In 2017, the company overhauled the algorithm it uses to decide how many streams have the same value as purchasing one stream, based on whether people pay for their streaming.

Every week from 12am on Friday to 11.59pm on Thursday, the official charts count sales and streams from 8,000 sources – including CDs, vinyl records, cassettes and both downloads and streams of audio and video.

It counts 100 premium streams – from users who pay for Spotify Premium or other paid services – and 600 'free' streams as a single 'purchase'.

And everything from remixes to acoustic versions counts towards a single song's chart success.

The official charts midweek update, released on Monday, placed Last Christmas at number one, followed by Ryder's song, Mariah Carey's All I Want For Christmas Is You, Ed Sheeran and Elton John's Merry Christmas, and The Pogues at number five.

Meanwhile, Spotify's published streaming data for the week to December 21 showed Last Christmas had been streamed more than six million times, helping it reach top spot ahead of Thursday's deadline.

Ahead of the deadline, bookmakers last night lowered their odds for Wham! to accept the award after momentum around the campaign appeared to falter – and the song failed to beat other Christmas songs in the December charts.

Announcing the odds around lunchtime on Thursday, Sky Bet said Last Christmas's odds were 1/25 to be number 1. However, bookie bosses say there is still potential for Sam Ryder and The Pogues to pull off a 'celebratory upset'.

Sky Bet has Ryder's number at 12/1, while The Pogues' Fairytale of New York – which never reached No. 1 – is at 16/1.

Mariah Carey's All I Want For Christmas, which dominated the streaming charts this month, had long odds of 40/1.

In the campaign to be crowned number one, the contestants have entered into an all-out musical war to reach the top – with bus tours, special edition singles and film shoots all being waged by those vying for the crown.

The British Eurovision star's single, You're Christmas To Me, is an Amazon Music original and has been heavily promoted as the theme song for the shopping and streaming juggernaut's Christmas movie, Your Christmas Or Mine 2.

Ryder has also been on the campaign trail in his “Sam-ta Grotto” van, giving dozens of performances of the song across the country.

He told BBC Breakfast that he wants to dispel the idea that 'all new Christmas songs are rubbish'.

Ryder added: 'We've done 26 gigs in the last six days and have done everything we can to make this Christmas miracle come true – because it's not often you find yourself in a chart position against the almighty Wham!.

“But with great respect for those absolute legends, there is always room for new music and new artists and attempts to bring new Christmas music to the market.”

The official midweek chart update, released on Monday, puts Last Christmas at number one, with the Pogues at number five. The final result will be announced later today

Official data published by Spotify for the week to December 21 showed that Wham! takes the top spot on the streaming service's charts and has been played more than six million times

Pogues fans had hoped to get the song to number one in memory of frontman Shane MacGowan after he died last month (pictured here with duet partner Kirsty MacColl)

Elsewhere, Wham has released a special edition Last Christmas Vinyl and a first CD single of the song, while Fairytale of New York has been released on a special edition for charity.

Profits from the Kirsty MacColl duet will be donated to the Dublin Simon Community, an organization that the late Shane MacGowan supported.

However, some Pogues fans have already thrown in the towel. A Facebook group launched shortly before MacGowan's death was made up of disgruntled campaign supporters pushing for Fairytale to go to number one next week.

One wrote: 'Looks like we didn't get Christmas No.1, but we could get Fairytale at No.1 next week. Most people stop streaming Christmas songs after Christmas Day. If we keep going all week, it can be done.'

The Official Charts records both physical and digital sales and streaming data of singles, including music video playback on platforms such as YouTube.

Each contributes to the total 'units' deemed to have been sold for each individual unit – but some outweigh others.

For example, those who stream music on free platforms are considered to have made a smaller contribution to the 'sales' of a song than those on paid platforms, which in turn count for less than one-on-one purchases.

Streams of newer songs also outweigh established favorites, giving them a chance to break into the charts upon release.

The Official Charts Top 40 will be broadcast on BBC Radio 1 from 4pm.

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