Why the conflict in Sudan is worrying its neighbours

A conflict raging in Sudan is troubling its neighbors and other nations for reasons ranging from concerns over shared Nile waters and oil pipelines to the shape of a new government and another humanitarian crisis in the making.

Sudan, which is heavily dependent on foreign aid, is no stranger to conflict. But this time the fighting is tearing apart the capital rather than a remote part of the country, which borders the Red Sea, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa in an unstable region.

Five of Sudan’s seven neighbors – Ethiopia, Chad, the Central African Republic, Libya and South Sudan – have themselves experienced political unrest or conflict in recent years.

The fighting that broke out in Khartoum on Saturday between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) derailed an internationally backed plan for a transition to civilian rule following the removal of Omar al-Bashir in 2019.

The conflict pits General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of Sudan’s ruling council and commander of his army, against wealthy former militia leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, Burhan’s deputy in the council and leader of the irregular RSF troops.

What is at stake for regional states?

Egypt – The history of Egypt, the most populous Arab state, and Sudan are intertwined through politics, trade, culture and shared Nile waters. Cairo is concerned about the political unrest in the south since the 2019 uprising that led to al-Bashir’s removal. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who also took office in a military coup, is close to al-Burhan.

Sudanese are by far the largest foreign community in Egypt, numbering an estimated 4 million people, including about 60,000 refugees and asylum seekers.

Egypt and Sudan, both dependent on the Nile for fresh water, are concerned about the threat to their supplies from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam upstream on the Blue Nile. The two nations have pushed for regulation of the operation of the Ethiopian dam. Any tension in the ties between Khartoum and Cairo could disrupt their efforts to strike a deal.

Libya – Sudanese mercenaries and militia fighters have been active on both sides of the conflict that split Libya after 2011. In recent years, many Sudanese fighters have returned to Sudan, adding to tensions in western Sudan’s Darfur region, where another years of conflict raged and fighting continued after a deal with some rebel groups in 2020.

Sudan has also been a point of departure and transit route for asylum seekers traveling to Europe via Libya, where traffickers have taken advantage of the conflict and political unrest.

Chad – Sudan’s western neighbor, Chad, which has taken in about 400,000 displaced Sudanese from previous conflicts, has seen about 20,000 additional refugees arrive from Sudan since the latest fighting began, according to the United Nations.

Chad is concerned about the crisis spreading across the border to the areas where the refugees live. Most are from Darfur, and during the Darfur conflict, Chad experienced cross-border incursions from Sudanese Arab militias known as the Janjaweed, which transitioned into the RSF. The raiders attacked Darfur refugees and Chadian villagers, seized livestock and killed those who resisted.

Chad’s government on Monday disarmed a contingent of 320 paramilitary troops that entered its territory.

Chad is also concerned about mercenaries working for Russia’s Wagner Group in the neighboring Central African Republic. They are said to have close ties to the RSF and could support Chadian rebels who threaten N’djamena’s government.

Wagner denies having activities in Sudan.

Arab Gulf States Wealthy oil producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have long tried to shape events in Sudan, seeing the transition from al-Bashir’s rule as a way to curb Islamist influence and stabilize the region.

Investors from both countries have money in a range of projects, from farms to an airline and strategic ports on the Red Sea coast.

Southern Sudan – South Sudan, which split from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war, exports its 170,000 barrels-a-day oil production through a pipeline through its northern neighbour.

Analysts say neither side in the Sudanese conflict has an interest in disrupting those flows, but South Sudan’s government said this week that fighting had already hampered logistics and transport links between the oil fields and Port Sudan.

About 800,000 South Sudanese refugees also live in Sudan. Any mass return could further strain efforts to provide vital assistance to more than 2 million displaced people in South Sudan who have fled their homes due to civil war.

Ethiopia – Occasionally a skirmish flares up along disputed parts of the Sudanese border with Ethiopia. Analysts say both sides could take advantage of the unrest in Sudan to achieve their goals.

When war broke out in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region in 2020, tensions rose over the fertile but disputed Al-Fashqa border and drove more than 50,000 Ethiopian refugees to the already impoverished parts of eastern Sudan.

Ethiopia will also keep an eye on developments given tensions over its $4 billion Blue Nile dam, which Sudan says could pose a threat to its own Nile dams and its citizens.

Eritrea – Many Eritrean refugees living in northern Ethiopia fled their camps during the Tigray War from 2020 to 2022. Eritrean refugees in Sudan could face a similar situation if a conflict outside Khartoum escalates.

What are the concerns of the world powers?

Russia – Moscow, which has long sought warm water ports for its navy, has closed one with al-Bashir, and Sudan’s military leaders have said it is still under review.

In 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the creation of a Russian naval facility in Sudan capable of docking nuclear-powered surface ships.

Western diplomats in Khartoum said in 2022 that the Russian Wagner Group was involved in illegal gold mining in Sudan and was spreading disinformation.

Two years earlier, the United States imposed sanctions on two companies operating in Sudan associated with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.

In a statement on Wednesday, Wagner denied it was operating in Sudan, said its personnel had not been there for more than two years and said it played no role in the latest fighting. It said it was responding to questions from foreign media “most of which are provocative”.

In February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with officials in Sudan on an African tour to expand Moscow’s influence at a time when Western countries sought to isolate Moscow with sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.

The United States and the West – The United States, like other Western powers, was happy to be rid of al-Bashir, who was accused of genocide and war crimes by the International Criminal Court over the conflict in Darfur.

But critics say Washington was slow to get behind a transition to elections.

Sudanese hopes for democracy were shattered when al-Burhan and Hemedti staged a coup in 2021.

The latest fighting is expected to derail a swift return to civilian rule as neither of the two opponents in Khartoum show any willingness to compromise.