Why Russia’s friendly relationship with North Korea is a potential danger to the world
Kim invited Putin to North Korea when the two met in Russia in September | File image | (Photo: AP/PTI)
Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for his first trip to North Korea in 24 years to warm up a renewed bond with its leader, Kim Jong Un, who has helped boost Russian firepower in the heavy war against Ukraine. As the US and its partners have tried to further isolate Russia and North Korea, the two countries have increased their trade in raw materials and weapons.
Russian forces have managed to fire thousands of artillery shells a day into Ukraine thanks to supplies from Kim. North Korea has likely received military aid in return, increasing the threat it poses to the US and its allies in East Asia.
Why is Putin meeting Kim in Pyongyang?
Putin still needs North Korea’s help and must show his gratitude to the leader who has supplied weapons for his war against Ukraine – in addition to the luxury sedan he gave to the limousine-loving Kim earlier this year. Kim invited Putin to North Korea when the two met in Russia in September. Satellite images show that arms transfers from North Korea to Russia began afterward. North Korea has some of the largest stockpiles of ammunition and spare parts interoperable with weapons that Russia has on the front lines in Ukraine. The two can trade virtually without threat of ban on a rail link across their border and through nearby ports between which ships can shuttle without leaving either’s territorial waters. According to the South Korean newspaper Dong-A Ilbo, Putin will be in North Korea on Tuesday and Wednesday.
What does Russia want?
Artillery shells, artillery rockets, short-range ballistic missiles and spare parts for some Soviet-era weapon systems used by Russia in Ukraine, such as the T-54 and T-62 tanks. Russia is especially motivated to get more weapons from North Korea as Ukraine is now receiving billions of dollars worth of new weapons from its US and European partners.
What does North Korea want?
A lot of. It needs money, raw materials and technology, among other things, to help with submarine and spy satellite projects. Small injections of aid take on great significance in North Korea. The economy was estimated to be worth about US$24.5 billion in 2022, with per capita income about 3.4% of South Korea’s. Russia has so far supplied North Korea with food, raw materials and parts used in weapons production, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik said.
If arms shipments increase, Russia will likely send more military technology, increasing Pyongyang’s threat to the region, Shin added. The value of munitions delivered to Russia so far could be worth billions of dollars, and the aid Kim has received likely represents one of the biggest boosts to the North Korean economy since he came to power in 2011 after the death of his father and predecessor. A Putin visit would also have “political value for Kim, and demonstrate a strong global position” to his domestic audience, said Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a foreign affairs think tank.
What impact could the meeting have on the war against Ukraine?
In recent months, Kim has visited factories that make munitions while overseeing tests of weapons that South Korea says it could send to Russia. These include a 240-millimeter multiple rocket launcher, which weapons experts said is a guided missile system with an estimated range of between 40 kilometers and 60 kilometers (25 miles to 37 miles). North Korea has also tested a short-range ballistic missile with an estimated range of about 110 km. The Ukrainian military is being strengthened by resumed US assistance, including longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). Weapons expert Joost Oliemans, co-author of The Armed Forces of North Korea, said the North Korean systems could offset Ukraine’s increased use of ATACMS and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), “which are taking a heavy toll.” But he adds that North Korean weapons may not be as robust as some U.S. systems.
Questions have been raised generally about the quality of North Korea’s weapons. Yet having a large supply of artillery shells allows Russian forces to detain the Ukrainians, while North Korean ballistic missiles allow the Russians to deplete the stockpiles of American interceptors intended to target the largest cities of protect Ukraine.
What are the consequences for the US?
More North Korean arms deliveries to Russia would increase Ukraine’s need for both American and European military assistance. And the more help Kim gets from Russia, the easier it will be for him to continue ignoring American requests to come to the table for nuclear disarmament talks. Any weapons technology North Korea receives increases its ability to launch deadly attacks on Japan and South Korea, which host the bulk of U.S. forces in the region, and perhaps successfully deliver a nuclear warhead to the U.S. mainland.
First print: June 16, 2024 | 10:09 am IST